On Wednesday 29 March, the governments of the 27 EU countries can expect a letter from British Prime Minister Theresa May. The letter informs EU colleagues that the United Kingdom is activating Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. In other words, the talks about the separation between Brussels and London are about to begin.
From the moment the letter is sent, the clock starts ticking. The parties have two years to sign the divorce papers. The 'we are breaking up' ceremony will therefore take place around the end of March 2019. It looks like it will be anything but a calm, friendly divorce.
60 billion
Jean-Claude Junker, the Luxembourg leader of the European Commission, has indicated that London will spend more than 60 billion euros on the divorce. That is the amount the United Kingdom will have to pay to leave the EU.
This concerns money that the British have already committed to, such as the money for all kinds of infrastructural projects that the EU had on the agenda for the coming years. There is also the question of who should fund the pensions of EU civil servants from the United Kingdom.
This bill is a signal to other EU countries that may want to follow the British example. Junker said this in an interview. 'If other countries were to leave, it would mean the end of the EU.'
It is almost certain that the British will challenge the amount of the bill. As a result, an argument between both parties immediately becomes a fact. Some British politicians have already called the amount absurd and others believe that the United Kingdom should be able to leave the EU without paying a single cent to Brussels.
Free trade agreement will be delayed
That argument will delay what is, from an economic point of view, the most important part of the negotiations. This concerns the negotiations on a free trade agreement between the EU and the United Kingdom.
Michiel Barnier is conducting discussions on behalf of the EU about the separation between the United Kingdom and the European Union. He has previously indicated that both parties must first agree on the terms of the divorce. Only then can they start free trade talks. The British, on the other hand, want to conduct these negotiations at the same time as the discussions about the divorce.
Politicians will act tough
The concerns of companies will lose out and politicians will mainly pay attention to the question 'how can I be the toughest?'. All this for political gain in our own country. Companies in both countries want to ensure that trade is disrupted as little as possible by the negotiations.
If many companies or sectors are affected by Brexit, there is a good chance that politicians on both sides of the Channel will blame the other party. The entrepreneur will then have to bear the economic damage himself.