The oil price does not know how to push through

The declining tenor has several reasons. For example, the market is concerned about increasing oil production. The oil cartel of countries united in OPEC does not appear to be watertight. According to the Reuters news agency, the cartel produced 50.000 barrels more oil daily in September.

'Driving season' comes to an end
In addition, in the United States (US) the demand for oil decreases somewhat in the winter, because Americans then travel fewer kilometers. The 'driving season' in the US is at its peak in the third quarter, when Americans go out en masse for holidays and to visit family.

The strengthening dollar is also putting pressure on oil prices. All in all, it means that the speculative investor, with short-term aspirations, has turned away from oil futures. At the beginning of October, oil was trading around $55 per barrel. Oil prices fail to break through $60 per barrel.  

Euro back to $1,15?
The German election results have given the euro a blow. The unrest in Spain regarding the Catalan referendum is also a headwind for the European currency. Recently it looked like the Eurodollar rate would surpass $1,20. According to analysts, a euro-dollar exchange rate of $1,15 is now more likely.

Factors that influence the foreign exchange market in the short term include macroeconomic figures, such as US job figures. The market is busy speculating who will succeed Fed Chairman Janet Yellen. For the time being, analysts expect the Fed to appoint a 'tightening' successor in monetary terms. 

This article is part of the recently published Trend report 'Agricultural Pro'.