White smoke from a chimney. That was the photo that Jean-Claude Juncker's chief adviser to the president posted on Twitter this morning. The reason: the European Union (EU) and the United Kingdom (UK) have an agreement.
Just 24 hours earlier, it looked as if the EU and the UK would not agree on the terms under which the two countries would part. At a press conference (Thursday, December 7), EU chief Jean-Claude Junker and British Prime Minister Theresa May announced that they had reached an agreement after long negotiations.
Northern Ireland stumbling block
There are many stumbling blocks with Brexit: how much money the British have to pay to the EU, the rights of EU nationals living in the UK and the rules on mutual trade between the two (after the divorce). As difficult as those points were, it was the border issue between Ireland and Northern Ireland that really caused problems.
Northern Ireland is part of the UK, but Ireland itself is a country and a member of the EU. As long as both Ireland and the UK are EU countries, the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland does not exist. Goods and people travel freely back and forth. Now that the UK wants to leave the EU, the border between Northern Ireland and Ireland should become a real border, with border posts and controls. And many Northern Irish people don't like that, and certainly not Ireland.
May was reportedly prepared to give Northern Ireland, which voted with a clear majority against leaving the EU, special status after Brexit to solve the potential border problem. However, the small Northern Irish party DUP reacted as if it had been stung by a hornet. He does not want to know anything about a special status for Northern Ireland.
The DUP is a party that is fiercely pro-UK and abhors anything that would bring Ireland and Northern Ireland closer together. Although the DUP is a small party, it is very important. This is because May's government is dependent on that party. If the DUP drops May, she will lose her majority and have to resign. Moreover, any agreement must ultimately pass the British Parliament; without votes from the small Irish party, the chance of this succeeding is very small. This also means that when Juncker and May discuss the Irish issue in Brussels, May must consult her coalition partner DUP.
Boss of your own boundaries
This complicates matters even more. The UK wants to leave the EU and the main reason for this is to control its own borders. However, that also means a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland, something the residents do not want. However, for everything to remain as it is, the UK would have to accept the EU's rules. This does not make the country the master of its own borders. And that is precisely the reason why many British people voted for Brexit.
A compromise, such as a special status for Northern Ireland, is therefore not possible. This is because the small coalition partner does not accept that. And then there is the fact that Scotland also wants such a special status. The residents there also voted against Brexit. There are even rumors that London should also be given a separate status in that case, because that city voted against Brexit with an overwhelming majority. It is clear that special zones could be the prelude to the break-up of the UK.
More complicated than expected
And then we haven't even talked about the other issues that are also at play, such as the status of Gibraltar. The rock surrounded by Spain, which Spain claims it is entitled to, but which is part of the UK. In short: the conversations are much more complicated than many thought.
On the other hand, the stakes are also enormous. The EU and the UK are very important trading partners. That is why Juncker and May withdrew after the press conference and continued talking. So, after staying up all night, Juncker's top advisor was able to tweet a photo of white smoke this morning.
There is broad agreement on the border between the UK and Ireland, the rights of citizens who continue to live in the UK or in the EU and the amount that London must pay when checking out of the EU hotel. The fact remains that even after this difficult birth, the hardest part of the conversations is still to come.
The parties now agree on the main points, which means that the details still have to be worked out. However, it is always the details that are difficult to arrange and involve a lot of tug-of-war. And when an agreement is finally reached, the British Parliament, among others, must still approve the agreement.
Border remains open
The border issue between Ireland and Northern Ireland could still become a stumbling block. It has now been agreed that the border will remain open without Northern Ireland being given a separate status within the UK. But leaving the EU, with an EU-like border between the UK and Ireland, is not possible. How exactly this will be arranged is such a detail.
Meanwhile, the DUP is saying the party has received a firm guarantee that Northern Ireland will not be given separate status and the UK as a whole will leave the EU. That would mean that there would be a real border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. But, as has been said before, neither party wants that. Ireland must also approve the final agreement. If she does not do so, all agreements will still be off the table and the countries that trade with the UK will be in great uncertainty.
Deadline is approaching
Meanwhile, the spring 2019 deadline for the UK to leave the EU (according to the rules) is also approaching. The worst scenario would be that the divorce takes place without having agreed how the contents will be divided (hard Brexit). This would mean, among other things, that there is no trade agreement between the EU and the UK and that companies that trade with the British must take into account additional controls and levies.
The fact that there was white smoke this morning is no reason for optimism. What the divorcing parties have agreed to is essentially that they want to continue talking to each other. A good basis for further conversations, but the hard nuts still need to be cracked. The fact that they used so much valuable time just to agree to keep talking shows how difficult and nerve-racking the conversations ahead will be.
Meanwhile, the check-out deadline continues to approach. Companies that have a relationship with the UK would be wise to take precautions now and to be on the safe side, assume a hard Brexit.