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Brits doubt the usefulness of Brexit

3 October 2018 - Redactie Boerenbusiness

Theresa May, the British Prime Minister, called on her own party on Sunday 29 September to unite for a good settlement of Brexit. That reports Business Insider. May did this at the Conservative party congress that lasts until Wednesday, October 3.

A major opponent is Boris Johnson, the former Secretary of State. He doesn't agree with May's line. Ex-minister Johnson therefore published an article in the British newspaper The Telegraph on Friday 28 September that, according to him, is an alternative six point plan is for brexit.

May's 'Chequers Plan' provides for the United Kingdom (UK) to remain part of the single European market for goods, but not to participate in the free movement of persons, services and capital. However, this has been rejected by other European leaders. Johnson also sees no point in this, because it limits the possibilities to conclude trade agreements independently after Brexit.

Decision already costs €560 million per week
The decision to leave the European Union (EU) has cost London around €560 million a week to date, according to a study by the Center for European Reform. This organization assumes, among other things, that the British economy is now 2,5% smaller in size than if a majority of voters had voted for EU membership in 2016.

The study focused on the period 'June 2016 to June 2018'. According to the centre, which it says is pro-European but also critical, the British state has already lost almost €30 billion a year in revenue. Compared to similar economies, the British economy has faltered since the Brexit decision. Economic growth in the first half of this year was the weakest since the second half of 2011.

Companies are investing less and appear to be becoming very cautious about the approaching Brexit, which is scheduled for March 29, 2019. There is still no agreement with the other member states about how and under what conditions the Brexit will be implemented.

No deal is not the end of the world

- Teresa May

Brits less confident about Brexit
The historical course of the polls since the referendum of June 2016 shows that enthusiasm for Brexit is declining. With the departure date approaching, the number of Britons who say they regret their choice to vote for Brexit is increasing.

The National Center for Social Research also provided a summary of 6 recent polls. This shows that a majority of 52% want to stay in the EU, against 48% who opt for a Brexit. John Curtice of the National Center of Social Research says: "It is important to determine whether there is still a majority in favor of Brexit, even if there is no second referendum."

The fact that a small majority now appears to be in favor of retaining EU membership is due to two reasons: there are regretful optants and groups that did not vote in the referendum and now say they are against Brexit after all.

Division over second referendum
The question of whether a second referendum is necessary is still pending great division† Recent polls show that 41% of Britons are against a second referendum and 40% are in favor. The supporters of a second referendum seem to have made some territorial gains.

May is aiming for a soft Brexit, analyst Samuel Tombs of Pantheon Macroeconomics. "Although a no deal is not it either end of the world", May said recently. Despite the fierce resistance from Brexiteers, May will ultimately have to opt for a Brexit that maintains close ties with the EU, Tombs believes. This is the only outcome that can count on a majority in the British Parliament.

Read more on Business Insider:
- No deal? Then the army is ready with food, medicine and fuel
Ireland needs European emergency aid in a no-deal Brexit
Banks bear the brunt of May's soft Brexit plans

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