Can May convince the House of Commons?

British Prime Minister Theresa May faces parliament to explain the Brexit deal. That will be exciting, because she cannot count on her party members for a majority. Moreover, the Tories are also teeming with opponents. As reported by Business Insider.

May succeeded Wednesday November 14 but barely managed to get the draft agreement for Brexit accepted by her cabinet. That required some art and flying work. The cabinet was probably not unanimous, as May did not explicitly report this and spoke of a 'collective decision'.

Parliament will not vote until next month, after the 27 other European member states have expressed their views on the departure agreement. What that mood will look like is not yet clear. It is obvious that a majority of 320 votes is needed to approve the agreement.

One problem is that the House of Commons cannot submit additions or amendments because it is an international treaty. At most, parliament can therefore send May back to the negotiating table. However, there is hardly time for this (with a view to March 2019).

The Conservatives lost their majority in a snap election in 2017 and now rule with fragile support from the Northern Ireland Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). Northern Ireland in particular and the issue of the border with the Republic of Ireland is a hot topic.

How does the British Parliament sign up?
In the opposition, almost everyone will most likely vote against the Brexit deal. Then we are talking about:

• 230 pro-European and loyal Labor members (of a total of 257).
• Schottish National Party, with 35 seats, because Scotland as a whole spoke out against Brexit.
• Liberal Democrats (12 seats), Plaid Cymru from Wales (4) and the Green Party (1).

In total there are 282 members, which is not enough for the required majority (320 seats). But May will be quite nervous about that, because her party has been rumbling for years, which means that not all 316 Conservatives will vote in favor of her agreement.

the opposition
Ironically, it appears that both pro- and anti-European Tories are voting against the deal. The Europhiles are doing this because they are against Brexit in principle and the radicals of the so-called European Research Group are doing this because the agreement does not go far enough for them. The opposition consists of:

• The pro-European faction within the Conservatives, with at most 12 Tories.
• The Northern Ireland DUP, which will take a very critical look at the new situation for Northern Ireland. They are 10 men.
• The largest and most important group consists of between 45 and 65 Conservatives for whom Brexit cannot be harsh. Jacob Rees-Mogg is the informal leader of this collective. May's attempt to push the deal through parliament will focus on the 'members' of this group.

Suppose only 45 of the radical Brexiteers vote down May's proposal, then she won't make it.

The Loyalists
The fragile prime minister can only fall back on the certain support of these groups:

• About 150 Conservatives are not only parliamentarians for a certain area, but also work in government. They should leave if they vote against May.
• A group of 85 loyal Conservatives who largely ignore Brexit and support the Prime Minister anyway.

Outside of her party, she may be able to rally support from other parties, even Labor, which will vote against the plan through party leader Jeremy Corbyn.

• Up to 5 Labor members can vote in favor of the plan.
• Perhaps 20 other Labor members who have not yet made up their minds and may support May if the most radical Conservatives do too.

All in all, May will have to try to win more MPs to her cause, regardless of their political background. An argument: the deal is better than a no-deal Brexit. After all, there will be no time to discuss a new agreement with Brussels. May herself is afraid of a no-deal and the resulting chaos at border crossings and at airports.

Read more on Business Insider:
- UK government backs May's Brexit deal, but not wholeheartedly
- Why the border with Northern Ireland is such a problem
- Interest rates are rising rapidly worldwide, but these opportunities are there

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