What if May's plan gets voted down?

After what will probably go down in history as the most chaotic week in British politics, one question remains: what happens if the House of Commons cancels the Brexit agreement that Prime Minister Theresa May has concluded with the European Union (EU)? Business Insider listed the options.

The British Parliament will vote on May's deal in December. As it looks now, there's a good chance there won't be a majority for the deal† All opposition parties have said they will vote against the deal. Only a handful of rebellious Labor MPs will support the government.

Northern Ireland protestors of the DUP have also said they will vote against the deal, as the party opposes the 'backstop' is. As a result, there would be a border control on goods between the British main island and Northern Ireland. The DUP plays a crucial role, as this party ensures that May has a parliamentary majority. Without this party, the Conservatives occupy just under half the seats in the House of Commons.

In addition, a hefty number of Conservative MPs intend to vote down the deal. About 20 Conservatives have already called for a vote of no-confidence, while about 10 others say they will vote against the deal. It concerns both sides of the conservative spectrum: Brexiteers and Bremainers.

By the way, it's exciting whether there is still enough support for a vote of no confidence against May from the Conservative faction. On balance, May seems to be heading for defeat anyway if the agreement comes to a vote in the House of Commons. Five scenarios are then possible:

1. The no deal Brexit
The first option is to leave the European Union without deal† There are 2 flavors imaginable with a no deal. The first is a controlled exit, in which the United Kingdom (UK) and the EU recognize their inability to reach an agreement and try to minimize the chaos for business and individuals. This could be done through 'ad hoc agreements' in important areas such as border controls and cross-border financial transactions.

The alternative is a tough Brexit in which the UK does not pay a cent and the EU rejects all kinds of side agreements. Such an outcome is unlikely, according to Charles Grant of the Center for European Reform. Grant thinks that those responsible for the chaos will quickly become unpopular with their electorate: the reaction of financial markets would also be much more violent, with the pound may depreciate further.

Neither the EU nor the UK want a no-deal departure. Even Brexiteers like Liam Fox seem to have woken up and are aware of the dangers of such a scenario. The Minister of International Trade said on Friday 16 November that a deal is better than no deal. However, if May is unable to secure a deal, a no-deal Brexit becomes increasingly likely.

2. General elections
If parliament torpedoed her deal, Prime Minister May could call a general election. Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn is particularly in favor of this. In contrast, the Conservatives fear this scenario; especially after last year's shocking elections, in which May lost her parliamentary majority.

The prospect of losing the election and bringing a socialist prime minister to power will deter most from going for that option. Conservative MP and former government minister Guto Bebb told Business Insider he expects a hefty loss to right-wing parties if elections are held after the cancellation of the deal.

3. Send the Prime Minister back to Brussels
Labor leader Jeremy Corbyn wants to call elections to renegotiate with the EU. However, the position of Brussels is that there will be no renegotiations. However, when push comes to shove, the EU will probably be a bit more flexible because a hard no-deal is too harmful.

The EU is unlikely to act flexibly while May is still in office. A changing of the guard helps. In front of renegotiation takes a lot of time. Article 50 of the European Treaty, which describes the withdrawal procedure, may need to be stretched a bit. The situation has to be very extreme for this to happen.

4. A referendum
There will be more support for a referendum. Particularly among the Liberals and Labor MPs, but also Conservatives such as Dominic Grieve and Jo Johnson are beginning to feel something. However, there are also various arguments against a plebiscite. Critics say this could undermine confidence in democracy and cause unrest. There is also a good chance that the Remainers will lose again.

Downing Street is firmly against a referendum. May therefore has high treason to our democracy mentioned. A Conservative government would never go for such an outcome (it could kill the Conservatives and May). However, there is a chance that Labor will come to power before May 2019. That would be the only way to hold a second plebiscite on the subject. Although Corbyn is rather vague about this.

5. A second vote on the deal
Another scenario is a second vote on the deal. May (or her successor if she resigns after an initial vote) can put the current deal (or a deal with minimal changes) to parliament for a second time. Given the horror scenario of a no deal, referendum or elections, it is not inconceivable that skeptical Conservatives will agree to this.

Much in this scenario depends on how the first vote goes. If May loses by a large majority (it looks like it), she is unlikely to win enough MPs on a second vote to vote in favour.

Read more on Business Insider:
- UK government backs May's Brexit deal, but not wholeheartedly
- Why the border with Northern Ireland is such a problem
- Interest rates are rising rapidly worldwide, but these opportunities are there

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