The Conservative Party figures who have indicated that they want to succeed Prime Minister Theresa May all make the same promise: they say they will succeed where May failed in executing Brexit. However, is that true? Business Insider made an analysis.
Promising is one thing, but fulfilling the promise is quite another. Moreover, the British premiership is a job with an extraordinarily high risk of damage: the chance that May's successor, just like May (and the 1 Conservative prime ministers who preceded her), also die on the European file, is very great. This is because, as negotiator Michel Barnier this week May's divorce deal is non-negotiable.
This position is also widely supported within the European Union. The 27 Member States and the negotiators in Brussels are crystal clear about this. "No period or comma will be changed," a source said at a European Council dinner against the Telegraph. So what is the new British Prime Minister to do then?
1. Leaving the EU with a deal
A Brexit with a deal seems a bridge too far for the new prime minister. As soon as May's successor can get started, the new prime minister will have to report to Brussels to enforce concessions in the emergency regulation around the Irish border. That so-called 'backstop' is quite unpopular among the Conservatives, because it keeps the United Kingdom trapped in the customs union of the European Union.
Most of the Conservative MPs who have applied for May's position want to get rid of this backstop (or want a significantly weakened version of the backstop). One point of attention, however, is that this is not an issue for the European Union. The withdrawal agreement is not negotiable for the European Union. And even when minor concessions are made, the Irish backstop is still a red line for the European Union.
The European Union is adamant on this issue, because the emergency regulation is the only guarantee that a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland can be avoided. In short: the current deal will stand, a deal that the Conservatives are hating even more every day.
2. A no-deal Brexit
And so we automatically arrive at the no-deal. May's 2 most likely replacements (Boris Johnson or Dominic Raab) have promised to drag the United Kingdom out of the European Union on October 31, with or without a deal. However, this becomes a very difficult task for various reasons.
Firstly, the British Parliament has repeatedly said it does not want a no-deal. There is no reason to believe that parliament now thinks otherwise. The British Parliament could simply oblige the government by law to prevent a no-deal, even if that means that the United Kingdom will be in the European Union even longer.
A new prime minister can ignore this process or waltz over it. But, in doing so it risks a crisis in which the British Parliament forces the government to resign, a scenario that Philip Hammond (the Secretary of the Treasury) suggested. Hammond, a soft Brexit supporter, said he would seriously consider voting against his own government if it tries to push through a no-deal Brexit. His comments resemble those of Jeremy Hunt, who is calling for a no-deal Brexit political suicide of the Conservatives.
3. No Brexit
In view of the current state of affairs in the British House of Commons, it is very difficult to find a compromise that a majority agrees to. Of course the prime minister can try to change the balance of power by calling new elections, but again this is highly unlikely. This is because the unpopularity of Conservatives in recent opinion polls has again become apparent.
4. A second referendum
And that leaves only one way out for the new prime minister: a second referendum. A second referendum with a no-deal stake is risky. Suppose a majority of the British population rejects a no deal, then that means the end of the prime minister who called the referendum. And yet it just might be the only viable option.
However, a new referendum also faces considerable obstacles: most Conservatives are against a new referendum. It also takes into account that the British Parliament must give the green light for a new referendum. That could get difficult. Still, given the impossibility of all other options, a second referendum appears to be the only way to prevent May's successor from sharing the same fate as Theresa May.
Read more on Business Insider:
- Anti-Brexit party leads in UK national election poll
- 'Hard Brexit will be disastrous for UK economy'
- Brits regret Brexit
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