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News Agricultural Congress 2019

Willem Middelkoop: 'Major raw material shortage is near'

18 December 2019 - Niels van der Boom - 10 comments

In an inspired, powerful and sometimes disconcerting presentation, multi-talented Willem Middelkoop guided visitors to the National Economic Agricultural Congress through the shady world behind the commodity trade and what forces influence it. Middelkoop is very positive towards the profitability of the agricultural sector.

In just 20 minutes and 60 slides, commodity guru, investor, investor and writer Willem Middelkoop flies all over the world. He explains the financial world that he describes in his books during this presentation.

Global Discontent
According to Middelkoop, the link between agriculture and the rest of the (economic) world lies in the worldwide unrest that has arisen among the people. Be it Brexit, the 'yellow vest movement', the impeachment procedure against US President Donald Trump and/or the protesting farmers.

According to Middelkoop, the reason for this great dissatisfaction is the interplay of forces that act behind the scenes to enrich their own capital. That also happens in the Netherlands, says Middelkoop. The ties between Prime Minister Rutte and Unilever are a good example of this. This influential elite (also known as 'the deep state') is one of Middelkoop's specialties.

Physical scarcity
Middelkoop's investment fund specializes in commodities, including agricultural (soft) commodities. "Commodity prices are constantly manipulated and used as leverage to bring various countries to their knees. Countering paper influences requires physical scarcity."

The world of precious metals is currently subject to such a physical scarcity, mainly due to the enormously increasing production of electric cars with built-in batteries. In contrast to the agricultural sector, the precious metals sector is unable or hardly able to increase its production.

Climate
It is only a small bridge from electric cars to the climate. According to Middelkoop, the elite found the instrument there to pump billions into a financial system that is on the brink of crisis due to hyperinflation. Farmers can take advantage of this. "Almost unlimited money is available for sustainable investments at 0% interest. These are the mandatory green bonds that are mandatory on the agenda at every bank. If hyperinflation occurs, sky-high debts are paid off in no time."

Besides green loans, agricultural entrepreneurs have more advantages. For example, the largest part of their assets is in land and buildings. Precisely these are portfolios in which Middelkoop also personally sees a lot of profit. High food prices are a trickier point. "Agricultural commodities have the lowest valuation in 50 years. High food prices are causing dissatisfaction among the population. The policy is therefore aimed at keeping them low. However, due to the enormous global demand, we are on the verge of a major shortage."

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Niels van der Boom

Niels van der Boom is a senior market specialist for arable crops at DCA Market Intelligence. He mainly makes analyses and market updates about the potato market. In columns he shares his sharp view on the arable sector and technology.
Comments
10 comments
jp 19 December 2019
This is in response to it Boerenbusiness article:
[url=http://www.boerenbusiness.nl/financieel/artikel/10885092/willem-middelkoop-groot-grondstofkort-is-nebij]Willem Middelkoop: 'A major shortage of raw materials is near'[/url]
That's what they called it 10 years ago... nothing could be further from the truth.
The areas where people have had a shortage of food in the past and present has nothing to do with availability, but with the local political climate. That doesn't change. In addition, yields in the granaries in the east are rising rapidly. The big problem of the future will be and will remain the large flow of people to Western Europe due to political climates elsewhere.
I hope this dear man can call Frans Timmermans, he just wants us to go back to the time of Ot and Sien.
Student 19 December 2019
Preaching for your own parish
peer 19 December 2019
the last 5 sentences say enough of his argument
food should not cost more otherwise you will get revolt among the population
avenue 19 December 2019
Precisely pear, and that is the cause of a much too low return in the agricultural sector.
This return is very deliberately sent down by the Eu. This is even the main goal.
This will not really change in the next 30 years, even if raw materials become scarce. They do not allow more expensive food packages in the EU.

So take the money out of farming and invest it outside of farming. You call that securing a return on your capital.
Subscriber
Jan 19 December 2019
Waiting for shortages often takes too long. It often comes at a time when you no longer expect it, but always because of crop failures, diseases or war.
ABALOE 19 December 2019
Hopefully his argument is well substantiated with analyzes and figures, because otherwise this is indeed preaching for your own store
jansen 19 December 2019
If I look at the weather picture of Australia, at least not a grain of grain is growing there for the time being.
Jan Veltkamp 19 December 2019
Subsidies are not there for the profitability of the applicant/companies, but always end up with the consultancies and the civil servants. What does the red collective, led by Timmerfrans, want: more subsidies for agriculture. That means more poverty for the farmers and more civil servants and bureaucracy.
Roel Hanssen 19 December 2019
example Russia; Builds a lot of greenhouse area to become more self-sufficient. These are greenhouses for food production, so greenhouse vegetables. And also to maintain security in deliveries. And it is also influenced politically.
Peter34 2 January 2020
@RoelHanssen. Isn't that a good development in Russia? Anyone who wants to expand in an area with little government fuss and a lot of support and an almost unlimited market, look for a Russian partner. Don't try without a partner. Sooner or later you will come for coffee.
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