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Rabobank: agriculture is growing despite uncertainty
Rabobank expects the Dutch agricultural sector to grow very limited this year. Uncertainty reigns, the bank reports in its sector forecast for the Dutch economy. The percentage growth of agriculture was also low in 2019.
The agriculture, forestry and fishing sectors have shown an upward trend in their combined turnover in the first 3 quarters of 2019. Which calculate the country's largest agricultural lender based on CBS figures. Revenue grew from €2,9 billion to more than €3 billion in the third quarter of last year.
Slight growth
For the whole of 2019, Rabobank forecasts a slight growth of 0,6%, compared to -2,6% in 2018. This year, 0,3% growth is expected and for 2021, the bank expects a 0,6% decrease in turnover. . The modest growth may be due to the tightened ties between the United States and China. As a result, China seems to be buying more products in the US and less in the European Union.
Uncertainty is also the word for 2020. Nitrogen uncertainty includes or more broadly includes: policy uncertainty. “For the forecast, we still assume that cabinet measures – which will be taken in the short term – will not involve a forced contraction in the sector,” writes author Lize Nauta. “Extensions of existing companies that require a permit are at issue, as long as a definitive nitrogen approach has not been introduced,” she continues.
Total economy
Rabobank uses a model for its sector forecast based on historical data across sectors, consumption growth, exports and investments. The total Dutch economy is expected to grow by 2019% in 1,7. This is faster than the Eurozone average.
Niels van der Boom
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