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Oil price again lower than expected

20 April 2020 - Erik Colenbrander

Enthusiasm about a possible recovery in the oil price has taken a serious blow. The oil price fell 17,8% this weekend to $15,02 a barrel of US oil.

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The expected price increase due to an agreement between Russia and OPEC on reducing oil production has not yet materialized, on the contrary.

May and June
Moreover, the agreements on reducing oil production will only come into effect on May 1. Then daily production by the OPEC countries and Russia will be reduced by ten million barrels in May and June to boost the oil price. This makes it the largest reduction in oil production ever.

Does this production reduction not outweigh the surplus created by the production increase at the beginning of March and the decreased demand due to the corona crisis? Who should buy all the unsold oil? That's what analysts wonder.

Stable diesel price
Unlike the oil price, the price of agricultural diesel has remained stable since April 10. The price continues to fluctuate around 85 Euro cents per liter (4.000 liters incl. €2 member discount per 100 liters / excl. VAT, without call-out charges). Even after the new oil price drop became known. 

Brent oil cost almost $70 per barrel at the beginning of this year, after which the price began to fall. The OPEC crisis, the subsequent price war and the corona crisis caused a dramatic drop in the oil price to the current $15 dollar. The price of agricultural diesel fell along with the collapsed oil price, but less sharply. 

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