After several postponements, the United Kingdom's departure from the European Union took place on January 31, 2020. However, the corona crisis has pushed this Brexit into the background. How are things?
The United Kingdom will formally cease to be an EU member on February 1 this year, but the country will continue to adhere to EU rules and maintain access to the single European market this year. In fact, very little or nothing has changed.
Brussels and London designated the remaining 11 months of 2020 (since Brexit) as a transition period to make final agreements on the post-Brexit relationship, including a trade agreement. The first rounds of talks produced little progress. Further rounds of negotiations have been delayed due to the corona crisis.
Make your own laws
The most important points of contention can be found in the field of fishing and the rules of the game that should ensure a level playing field. Brussels wants London to follow EU regulations on state aid and the environment. This is to prevent British companies from gaining a competitive advantage. However, London insists it wants to make its own laws.
The EU delegation also wants to see clear evidence that the British government is working to introduce customs procedures for goods moving from the rest of the country to Northern Ireland. During Brexit it was agreed that there would be no border between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Removing that border could endanger peace on the divided island.
Border checks
However, the 'no border between two Irelands' agreement means that Northern Ireland will remain part of the EU's single market (otherwise there would have to be customs and border controls at the border between Ireland and Northern Ireland). As products made in England, Scotland and Wales will not have to follow EU law after the transition period, goods going from the rest of the UK to Northern Ireland will have to go through a customs procedure. This will take place in the Northern Irish ports.
The British government has said from the start that it will not accept a postponement of the final Brexit and that a full Brexit will be a fact as of December 31, 2020. Even if the two parties do not reach an agreement about the relationship after that date. In June, the United Kingdom and the EU will take stock of the negotiating process, where they will have to decide whether to extend the transition period or not.
Make few concessions
From the rounds of negotiations that have taken place, it can be deduced that both sides are willing to make few concessions. This in turn means that the chance that the transition period will be extended increases. Although London ruled this out in the past, it is worth remembering that the British government also ruled out a Brexit postponement. Only to end up accepting multiple postponements.
With economies on both sides of the Channel weakened by the corona crisis. Knowing that breaking up without an agreement will cause additional economic damage. And with the fact that the economic damage appears to be greater in the United Kingdom than the EU as a whole. With all this, it seems obvious to expect that the agreed transition period will be extended to a date in 2021.