News Climate change
Free trade important in the fight against food shortages
Free trade can prevent world hunger due to climate change. This is the conclusion reached by research from the Austrian International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA), which has been published in Nature Climate Change.
The IIASA concludes that regional food shortages can be met by international trade, thus avoiding famine. This is only possible if all protective measures surrounding international trade, such as import duties and the like, are lifted the Institute in a statement.
The IIASA's research is largely intended to show that the effect of climate change on global food availability should not be underestimated and that free(er) international trade can play an important role in this. The research comes in the middle of a period when other scenarios are also being sketched, in which the desire for more sustainable production is linked to a circular economy and self-sufficiency. Pierre Berntsen, director of agricultural affairs at ABN Amro, has this last week at Boerenbusiness explained.
Free International Trade
According to the team of researchers at the IIASA, returning to a self-sufficient society is not the right solution. While famines and malnutrition are unlikely to affect the Northern Hemisphere, Sub-Saharan and areas of South Asia are a different story. If no adjustment is made to current trade integration, these areas will face food shortages, the researchers said.
With (more) free trade this problem can (largely) be solved. If regions where, for example, cereals and maize grow well, such as in Europe and America, they can use the surplus to trade to the areas that suffer from food shortages. Climate change puts these areas at risk that they will no longer be able to harvest the maximum from their plots. Free trade can therefore limit malnutrition. Yet the current form of international trade is largely hampered by import tariffs, as they drive up food prices.
Climate change
The research was carried out by examining the effects of climate change on the yields of farmlands. A total of 60 scenarios have been outlined that take into account global warming between 2 and 4 degrees Celsius, with 2050 as the end point. This includes the various trade agreements in each scenario. With the current climate change and trade integration, the risk of malnutrition among the global population increases by 45%, when the availability of food decreases by 3%.
Furthermore, it appears that with the current state of climate change and the current form of international trade, up to 2050 million people will have to deal with malnutrition by 55. Without adjustment in the current trading system, malnutrition could increase with the current climate change by 33% to 73 million people worldwide. If current barriers to international trade, such as import tariffs, are lifted, 'only' 20 million people will face malnutrition from climate change.
Jorine Cosse
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