Hard Brexit and hard blow are getting closer

Only a rabbit in the top hat can prevent a hard Brexit. So says Siemen van Berkum, an expert at Wageningen Economic Research, who worked with a team of Wageningen researchers to calculate the consequences of various Brexit scenarios. 

Van Berkum does add that he bases himself on what he reads in the newspapers. But also those directly involved, such as Frans van Dongen lobbyist in Brussels for the Central Organization for the Meat Sector (COV), agrees that the chance of a hard Brexit is real. The turnover of Dutch agriculture and horticulture will fall by more than 5% if the EU and the United Kingdom do not agree on a trade agreement. 

Recently, the London School of Economics also released a comparable estimate of the negative effects of a hard Brexit. 40% of Britain's agricultural and food products are imported from the European continent. In the dairy sector 15% is imported, 99% of which comes from Europe.

European market disappears
Ireland is by far the hardest hit, followed by the countries bordering the United Kingdom and exporting many agricultural products, namely Belgium, the Netherlands and Denmark. 10% of the EU market will disappear if the UK stops doing business with Europe at all. 

Among other things, the effect of import tariffs that the EU applies is large, says Van Berkum. Last year, the Netherlands exported €800 million in beef and €600 million in pork, says Van Dongen. The figures for chicken meat are less transparent, because a lot of chicken meat from outside the EU is shipped to the United Kingdom. But according to Nepluvi chairman Gert-Jan Oplaat, a third of Dutch chicken fillet is transported to Great Britain. Like Van Dongen, he does not deny that there is a chance of a hard Brexit, but 'under pressure everything becomes liquid.'

Final Negotiations
In any case, the pressure is greatly increased. EU officials and politicians have expressed via social media in recent days how busy they are with the final negotiations, in preparation for the EU summit that will be devoted to Brexit in mid-October. But it is clear that these are exceptionally difficult negotiations. 

A line has to be drawn somewhere to prevent Northern Ireland from becoming a transit point between the EU and the rest of the world. But drawing a line, wherever, is a very sensitive issue given the issues of the Northern Ireland civil war. The past is certainly not forgiven and forgotten. 

Johnson determined
The trade agreements between the United Kingdom and the European Union also cause headaches. There is no change. Because the European Union cannot allow unfair competition to arise if England does not have to comply with EU state aid rules, but does have free access to the European market. 

However, according to Van Berkum, the government of Prime Minister Boris Johnson is determined. Brexit has been enforced by Johnson and any trade agreements with the EU are also no problem for Johnson. The London School of Economics has already calculated that in the event of a hard Brexit, the price of food will rise by tens of percent in the United Kingdom. 

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