News Rabobank outlook
Corona and AVP also dominant in the meat market in 2021
Although the global meat chain is looking for opportunities to recover next year, ASF and corona will continue to have a dominant presence in the meat market in 2021. Rabobank expects this in its Global Animal Protein Outlook.
The RaboResearch report identifies African swine fever (ASF) in China as the key player in most of the changes that took place in 2020 around the global meat production and trade. Although the Chinese pig herd is recovering, among other things, AVP will continue to keep a finger in the pie next year. In addition to AVP, the corona crisis is also causing shifts in the trade and production of meat products.
Uncertainty
Many events from 2020 will continue to simmer next year, according to Rabobank. For example, due to AVP, China remains a large, uncertain link in the global meat trade. The Asian superpower has meanwhile set course for the recovery of its own pig population. If all this goes well, the demand for (pork) meat from abroad is expected to decrease. Yet AVP is still lurking and now not only in China. Since the beginning of this autumn, Europe has also been under the spell of ASF due to outbreaks in Germany, a major producer of pork. This in turn is causing disruptions in trade between China and Germany, which also impacts Europe.
The corona crisis is mainly causing shifts in meat production for the food service. But also the availability of employees, changes in stock management and food safety cause problems in many places. Restoring the food service is an important step towards recovery for almost all types of meat and fish. High costs and limited availability of labor play an important role in beef and pork production. The high costs can be somewhat compensated by opening up the catering industry, among other things, because the more expensive products are sold here. Fish and shellfish and poultry meat are also experiencing problems from the food service disruption.
In addition to disease outbreaks, topics such as technology, feed prices, governments and sustainability also play a role in the bank's future expectations. Feed prices are expected to continue rising in 2021, as a result of which production will have to deal with cost increases. Sustainability and government involvement are also playing an increasingly important role in production, and this will continue next year. In addition, technologies are becoming increasingly important, as can be seen in the production of fish and shellfish.
Forecast by area
Globally, there are differences in the changes expected for 2021. For example, Rabobank predicts that not only will the Chinese pig population continue to grow, the production of poultry meat will also have another strong year. Beef production is tempering slightly, while South Asia is seeing more recovery in production and consumption. Pork production here is also seeing recovery in Vietnam, among other places, after AVP also struck a chord here.
In North America, production of all meats is increasing, especially beef. Exports in this continent depend in particular on the relationship between own demand and production. The growth in meat production will also continue in Brazil, although this will be more steady in 2021 than last year, the bank expects. In Europe, a possible recovery of the food service means that poultry meat is on the rise again, while pork and beef production is declining due to, among other things, declining global demand.
Australia and New Zealand are entering different stages in production and export. In Australia, the tight (beef) livestock means that production is limited, which in turn supports prices. In New Zealand, beef production will recover somewhat, as will sheep production.
Jorine Cosse
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