News Economy
Agriculture plus in largest contraction economy since WWII
The Dutch economy shows a decline of 3,8%. It is the largest contraction since World War II. This is apparent from figures from the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) that were presented on Tuesday 16 February. The agricultural and fisheries sector showed a plus of 1,2%.
"A small plus", says Peter Hein van Mulligen, chief economist at CBS, when asked to Boerenbusiness† "It is difficult to explain exactly how that is. A wet or dry year can have an impact on agriculture, but the sector appears to be quite corona resistant. Kale now grows just as fast as when there is no corona, although it does have some influence, of course. There are a few specific support measures for agriculture, such as those for chip potato growers. There are considerably fewer chips sold because the catering industry is closed. Agriculture as a whole has done very well and is growing by 1,2%. In short: little cause for concern. "
Contraction in the fourth quarter
The economy shrank by 2020% in 3,8, compared to a year earlier. That is a slightly stronger decline than the contraction in 2009 (-3,7%) as a result of the credit crisis. This shows the strongest contraction ever measured by Statistics Netherlands last year. "It could have been worse," said Van Mulligen. "The economy in most other European countries shrank faster than that of the Netherlands in the past year." In the second quarter, the economy shrank by 8,5%, only to recover partially in the third quarter: with growth of 7,8%. A contraction of 0,1% can be seen in the fourth quarter, mainly due to a fall in household consumption.
Consumers spent 11,9% less last December than in December 2019, according to Statistics Netherlands. That is the largest contraction, after May of last year. As in the previous months, consumers spent less on services. Since the closure of most stores, spending on durable goods has also fallen sharply (for the first time in 7 months). Consumers spent 6,7% more on food, drink and tobacco than in the same month a year earlier.
The volume of goods exports was 0,9% smaller in December than in December 2019. In the 3 months before that, exports still grew. In particular, fewer minerals, petroleum products, machines and equipment were exported in December than a year earlier. However, more chemical products were exported.
More negative economic situation
The economic situation, according to the Economic Clock of Statistics Netherlands, is more negative in mid-February than in January. The economy is in a slump. In the Business Cycle, 11 of the 13 indicators underperform their long-term trend. The measures taken against the spread of the coronavirus have a major impact on many of these indicators.
Linda van Eekeres
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