News Rabobank
'Chinese pig herd will not recover before 2023'
African swine fever (ASF) continues to be a major cause of swine market volatility. China itself says it is well on its way to recovering the domestic pig population, but is still facing setbacks. Rabobank does not expect the Chinese pig herd to fully recover before, and probably only after, 2023. What are the further expectations for 2021?
China continues to face setbacks in pig recovery. For example, illegal vaccines are being circulated, there are new variants of the ASF virus and there is pressure from diseases such as Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS).
It is estimated that from December 2020 to February 2021 the sow herd decreased by about 3% to 5% per month. Rabobank sees this as a setback during the uptrend rather than a turning point. The bank estimates that the current Chinese sow herd is still about 10% to 15% above last year's level.
Don't recover before 2023
The bank also foresees strong growth in Chinese pork production for 2021 and expects growth of 8% to 10% year-on-year. The estimate has already been revised down slightly due to the new ASF outbreaks.
While Rabobank believes that pig supplies in general will increase in 2021, prices are expected to fluctuate due to uncertainties about disease development, feed costs and import policies.
As China continues to face setbacks, a full recovery of the pig population is not expected to be possible before, and probably not until after, 2023.
Vietnam
ASF still prevails in Vietnam and in 2020 pork imports there rose by no less than 220% to 170.000 tons. Rabobank expects a recovery in Vietnamese pork production. The prognosis is an 8% to 12% recovery. As a result, import needs are forecast to fall by 10% to 20%, but will still exceed 2019 levels.
Germany
ASF plays a major role in Germany, although the pig herd is still free of the virus to date. Imports of piglets and pigs have fallen sharply and the decline is likely to continue in 2021. Pork exports were also limited because major importers such as China, Japan and Vietnam stopped importing German pork. Since ASF continues to spread among wild boars in Germany, Rabobank expects the Chinese import ban to remain in force for at least the first half of 2021.
Chinese imports
Last year, Chinese pork imports rose 116% year-on-year. Rabobank expects imports to fall by 2021% to 10% in 30 compared to the record last year. This expectation is based on growing domestic production. While a supply shortage remains, the gap will be smaller than in 2020.
In 2020, Europe accounted for 58% of total Chinese imports, the United States had a 17% share and Canada and Brazil accounted for 9%. The United States substantially increased its supplier share last year. Rabobank expects the US to further increase its share in 2021.
Chanti Oussoren
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