Analysis Nitrogen
Suddenly forced sale is no longer excluded
No fewer than 4 reports were published just before the weekend (19 March) to provide the new cabinet with guidelines for its nitrogen policy. According to these government memorandums, a sharp reduction in the cattle herd cannot be prevented. The largest decrease in the number of animals for which a scenario has been made is based on 30% in 2030. Whether or not forced.
The so-called Explorations that have been published did not miss their target just before the start of the formation. As a result of these recommendations from top officials of the national government, the question of whether the Dutch livestock should be reduced appears to be no longer central to the forthcoming formation. It is clearly pre-sorted on the questions of how fast and how hard the livestock should shrink and whether this can be done on a voluntary basis.
It is obvious that the VVD, D66 and CDA are once again trying to forge a coalition together (supplemented by one or more other parties). D66 is in favor of halving the livestock, but is committed to voluntary. VVD and CDA have not yet wanted to put a percentage on it. Both VVD leader Mark Rutte and CDA leader Wopke Hoekstra said in the election campaign that halving the livestock is not an option. Rutte even called this 'ridiculous'.
The VVD's election manifesto states that reducing livestock numbers is not a goal. The party says it wants to prevent shrinkage through a back door, for example through a generic curtailment of phosphate or animal rights. Both the CDA and the VVD see a lot in technical measures on livestock farms to limit emissions.
The 4 reports include the fact that many farmers want to stop using it themselves, for example due to a lack of a successor. But expropriation is not shunned as one of the means of buying out peak tax payers. One of the reports (Standards and pricing of nitrogen emissions) has set itself the task of looking for possibilities to reduce nitrogen emissions by 30, 50 and 70% in 2030 compared to 2018. That is 5 years earlier than what is stated in the Nitrogen Act. agreed to meet. The law is based on a 50% reduction in emissions by 2035.
The last 2 packages include a large-scale purchase scheme, especially for dairy farms. According to the compilers, the potential of technical measures - which VVD and CDA would like to see - are currently insufficient to achieve reduction percentages of 50% or 70% of ammonia. In the most ambitious scenario, the report assumes a 30% decline in livestock by 2030.
Voluntary Stoppers
Livestock shrinkage does not necessarily have to come at the expense of the group of farmers who want to continue because of the large number of stoppers, officials said. "Most studies assume that 30 to 40% of farms will stop in the next ten years." According to the officials, in order to realize shrinkage, targeted policy is needed so that the production space that becomes available is not completely taken over by the companies that remain.
The officials outline 3 instruments that could possibly be used to reduce livestock numbers. The first is the skimming of animal rights (poultry and pigs) and phosphate rights (dairy cattle). The second instrument is the pricing of livestock emissions via an ammonia levy or rights system. The third instrument is a large-scale purchase scheme, mainly aimed at dairy farmers without a successor.
Forced sale
To ensure that the contraction will come, compulsory buy-out is the best option, according to the officials. According to them, cutting production rights also offers possibilities, although the Fertilizers Act would then have to be amended and coordination with the EU would be required.
Setting a regional standard for the number of livestock farms that must close is possible, but that is more expensive than targeted buy-out, officials say. "Termination of specific peak loaders can be done through voluntary buy-out or through more mandatory instruments such as expropriation." In all forms of business termination, the government must pay compensation, officials said.
Scientific and political agenda
The long-term exploratory study 'Nitrogen space for the future' states that the existing techniques, such as diluting with water or injecting manure more deeply, are not sufficiently effective. The development of more effective techniques, such as the separation of manure and urine, is not yet profitable and is not going fast enough. The advice is to continue to stimulate innovations, but it is also noted that there is a long way to go. "Research into deepening and broadening in agriculture for the benefit of a new earning capacity with matching earning models is important."
The officials recommend drawing up a scientific and political agenda in which the most important topics that require further research can be discussed in a national and international context. For example, sufficient scientific information must be made available 'for responsible decision-making about whether or not to adjust the set (interim) objectives and measures'.
Too much power for civil servants
The Dutch Dairy Farmers' Union (NMV) is shocked by the publications. "This exploratory report came out under the leadership of officials from Schouten and was timed just after the elections. Apparently officials are given too much power to direct wishes from election programs at the expense of society. They realize this by means of weak, not scientifically independent simulation models and unattainable goals," according to the NMV.
Linda van Eekeres
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