Movement TM similar to that of the 2012 harvest

There is therefore a significant negative expected value, apparently the market assumes that the potato market will end up in a range of €20,00 to €25,00 towards spring. At this stage of the season the market often feels weaker. It is striking to make a comparison with the 2012 harvest year (the England year). After a peak in the harvest when the futures market rose above the €30,00 level, the market fell to €10 in week 2013 of 19,20. The mood due to persistent demand from England and a somewhat later spring caused the futures market to eventually settle at €27,00.

Due to the large number of predetermined flows of raw materials, the potato market is becoming increasingly thin and therefore more sensitive to sentiment. Ultimately, the market will be settled on the Cash Settlement, which means that many position holders will not or hardly change in their position. To a large extent, the positions on the futures market are offset by potatoes that must be settled on the final Cash Settlement of the futures market. Due to the thinness of the market, the futures market previously dipped in week 38 (€21,20) and in week 42 (€21,50), currently (end of week 8) the April 2017 quotation is once again reaching this level.
It also feels calm in the physical market, which was reflected in the lowering of the Belgapom quotation on Friday, February 17 (-€1,00 to €24,00 per 100 kg). Dutch processors also seem to be hanging back a bit and report slightly more (not exaggerated, by the way) supply. The trade of chip potatoes in week 8 continues to go for prices between €24,00 and €26,00 per 100kg.

The big question for now is:

-Can the market recover or will it continue in the red?

-Are the processors sufficiently covered or do they still need to be "moved"?

-Will Southern Europe or England still enter the market?

Looking at the available figures, the race would not have been run yet and the trail of the 2012 harvest may be followed.