The futures market of the April 2018 contract unexpectedly showed a significant increase at the end of week 23.
In the past period, trading was around 15 euros for a long time. There appeared to be little desire to trade at a lower price level. On the other hand, there was little incentive to buy, because the acreage in Western Europe would have been expanded by a few percent.
The rise in the futures market on Friday, June 9 was all the more striking. The first contracts of the day traded at 15 euros with a lot of turnover (388 times) and the market closed at 16 euros. That is the highest level to date of the current season.
Explanation for the increase
The best explanation for the increase is the persistent drought, even after the rain in recent days in the south (although not in all areas) of the Netherlands, Belgium (particularly Wallonia) and the north of France. A number of stakeholders from the aforementioned cultivation areas experience the situation with regard to the drought as exciting. Especially considering the weather forecast for the next 10 days.
Growers in the growing areas of central and northern Netherlands, for example, seem surprised by the unexpectedly positive turn of the futures market. The potato crops are "exploding", especially where sufficient rain has fallen. Statistically speaking, towards week 26/27 (around the turn of June/July) the market will start to choose more direction. The weather and the long-term forecast will therefore be the buying (or "selling man") in that sense.