Will the futures market follow 1976 or 2011?

Since the beginning of this spring, many references have been made to the memorable year of 1976. Everyone knows what happened then. Now that the drought continues, those stories are becoming stronger. Looking at the price movements of the potato futures market, there are also bridges to be built with more recent years.

Crucial weeks for price formation
Anyone who takes a look at historical data from the April contract on the potato futures market will see at a glance that the period between week 25 and week 35 is crucial for price formation. At the moment, 2017 is copying the line of 2005 and to a slightly lesser extent of 2015. If we look at the data, it can be seen that after an upturn there was a short period of stabilization, before rising to 25 euros or more .

Fall back to price peak
It looks like the market started early, compared to previous seasons. The setback is already noticeable today, Tuesday, June 20. Around noon the market moves to 18,70 euros, after he yesterday June 19 closed at 19,90 with a significant turnover of almost 700 contracts. This means that the gap that was created yesterday has been filled again today.

Volatile character
Which way the course goes depends on the rain that will fall. In short: will it be 1976 (very dry) or 2011 (very wet). This gives the price formation of the April contract a very volatile and explosive character. It could go either way.

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