Potato price in a downward spiral

As has been mentioned before, the potato price historically chooses a direction in weeks 27, 28 and 29. Growth and acreage determine the further development of the potato price. If you go to the database you will see that in the event of a downward movement in these weeks, the market is often no longer able to initiate a recovery. Unfortunately, this now also seems to be the case. 

The market could not maintain itself above €15, a crucial price level for the further development of the potato market. The next barrier, given the historical price development, would be €10. It remains a strange market. The physical market can be described as quiet, with a starting price for the Belgapom of €17,50, making it in the top 3 of the past 15 years.

Text continues below the photoThe quotation of the early Belgapom potatoes in euros, per ton

Old harvest can still be used
The mediocre harvest of early potatoes in Belgium does not seem to be fully reflected in the price. This is partly due to the supply of early potatoes from Germany and the Netherlands. However, a good early harvest in Bordeaux also ensured that the Belgian factories did not panic. 

The supply of old harvest potatoes was also striking. Despite last year's very poor harvest and the very high processing by the Northern European chip processors, there appear to be enough potatoes left at the end to continue with the old harvest for an extra week.

Closing a number of processing lines also ensures that processors are not aggressive on the market. The market will show its real face next week, when the processors all open the throttle and start the new season.

Mood moderate
The mood remains moderate to optimistic for the main harvest. Growers from the Netherlands and Germany in particular are in a gloomy mood and are looking forward to a large and good harvest. There is no question drought and the weather (temperature and sunshine) can be described as real potato weather. What also seems to be an important factor is the good structure in Northwestern Europe. This helps ensure that the potatoes have developed well in terms of root system and foliage. This means they have the potential for good yields.

Text continues below the photoPrecipitation in July 2017 in the Netherlands (1 to 20 July)

The weather has an influence
These reports also come from Northern France and parts of Belgium where it is still very dry the water shortage is still present. The area with water shortage is becoming smaller, but it still plays a role. However, plant specialists and growers report that there is still the potential for an average harvest for the main crop in the dry areas. This is indicated on the basis of foliage development and the structure of the soil.

The coming weeks will be decisive for further price developments. Given the current weather forecast, a market above €15 does not seem to be an option for the time being.

The April contract of the potato futures market in euros per 100 kilos

The April contract of the potato futures market in euros per 100 kilos