The most recent figures from the German statistical office Destatis show that the potato acreage in our eastern neighbors is turning out differently this year than expected. This means that the maps are different than previously presented by Destatis. These new forecasts, for the cultivated area, also deviate from the NEPG estimate.
Destatis, the official German news agency, writes in its most recent area forecast of a growth of 2% compared to the 2016 crop year. This means that the total area will increase less sharply than was expected in May. The NEPG also previously reported an area growth of 3%.
Difference of 1%
A difference of 1% may not seem like much. However, on the total area it means a margin of almost 2.500 hectares. As a result, the provisional area reaches a total area of 248.500 hectares. That is still the largest area in 5 years and an increase of 6.000 hectares compared to last year. The focus of cultivation is in Lower Saxony. There, 111.700 hectares of potatoes are grown, followed by Bavaria with 41.600 hectares and North Rhine-Westphalia with 30.200 hectares.
More fries, less starch
The area of starch potatoes has to drop significantly, causing the areas of table and chip potatoes to grow. The latter will grow from 158.000 hectares to 180.000 hectares this year. The area in Lower Saxony is growing by 5,7% and in Bavaria it is 3%. Production in North Rhine-Westphalia is expected to shrink by 3%. Especially because starch cultivation is declining due to pressure from the existing chip industry.
With a plus of 6%, the state of Saxony-Anhalt is the largest grower. There are 13.500 hectares here. This is a lower figure than Destatis previously mentioned. In May, an area increase was attributed to the state of Baden-Würtemberg. There were strong doubts about that. This figure has been adjusted downwards in the new forecast. The area is now shrinking slightly.
More than 200.000 tons more
Official yield expectations for the 2017 harvest have not yet been published. Last year the total volume was 10,8 million tons. If an average harvest is taken into account this year, the total yield will be more than 11 million tons.
In Lower Saxony, the potato yield is expected to be relatively high and quite certain. Last year an average of 47 tons per hectare was harvested. Something more is expected for this year. However, more quality problems are also taken into account. The net proceeds may therefore be lower.
Yield figures for early chip potatoes in North Rhine-Westphalia are still positive. In the Rhineland people are on average negative. The table potato yield will not break any records this season, according to potato growers in this area.
Special season in Bavaria
In Bavaria the planting season started very early, due to a dry and warm spring. Planting has been in full swing since mid-March. All main potatoes were already in the ground by mid-April, but at the end of April night frost threw a major spanner in the works. The early potatoes caused damage to the crops, but rainfall in the months of May and June allowed the potato crops to catch up.
Subsequently, very high temperatures in July again put a brake on growth. Low tuber numbers, extensive growth and a high underwater weight mean that only a very average yield is expected. Not much can be said about the quality yet, because the weather can still make a big difference in August.