In the coming months it will not be so much the hectare yield that will make the season a difficult season from a price point of view, but it is in particular the considerably expanded acreage that is not doing the business any good.
If we calculate the figures from week 32, the area for consumption potatoes in the EU-5 countries (France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and England) will amount to approximately 640.000 hectares. That is more than 45.000 hectares more than last season. Compared to the average (2008 to 2016), no fewer than 2017 additional hectares of potatoes were planted in 60.000.
Growing acreage makes sense
Even in the 2014 harvest year that went well in terms of price, the area, at 600.000 hectares, was not that large. Nevertheless, the expansion of the area (particularly in France and Belgium) is a logical consequence. The capacity of the factories must expand, due to the global demand for fries, and this requires more hectares.
The question is whether expanding the area will not be too much of a good thing. This somewhat signals the decline from the futures market to the physical market, just as with Belgapom (11 August €8 - €2. That makes the mood 'Bland').
Futures market drops
In a short time, the futures market has fallen from €15 (mid-July) to €9 (end of week 32). This follows the trend of the 2014 harvest year. Time will tell whether the increased processing capacity, especially over the past 3 years, can lower the potato price to an even lower price level.
However, a significant recovery of the potato market in the short term no longer appears to be an option (harvest issues aside).