What does flooding mean for the market?

The potato futures market rebounded on Wednesday, September 6. This after the announcement of heavy precipitation. The price of the April contract went from €7,20 to €8,10. Then it weakened slightly again, never to exceed €8. On Monday, September 18, the EEX opens at €8, after closing at €7,80 on Friday. At 11 am the price of the April contract stood at €7,90. Then it dropped further, to €7,70.

Onion market up
For now it is mainly the onion market which is influenced by the high rainfall. Growers who harvested their product early can expect visits from interested parties. At the beginning of week 37 it was not possible to make more than €7,50 per 100 kilos, but 5 days later the prices had already risen to €10. To achieve this, the product must be coarse and must also be dry behind the planks.

Broader view
The potato market is now not only looking at the Dutch market, but also elsewhere in the EU-5. If we look at the rainfall amounts in Belgium, Germany and France, the situation here is not worrying. It actually provides growing weather. The Belgian coastal region received up to 70 millimeters of water, but weather maps show that it is drier further inland.

EU-5 not affected
In Germany, only the south received rain. There, precipitation varies between 10 and 30 millimeters, according to the German weather service Wetteronline. Slightly more rain has also fallen along the border with the Netherlands, but this is certainly not causing any problems.

German farmers are especially concerned storm damage in corn to make. That is a big problem. It has also remained relatively dry in France. In Northern France, the counter does not go further than 15 millimeters, according to the French weather service.

Scotland very wet
The United Kingdom did catch a tail of the showers that hit the Netherlands. That doesn't cause any major problems. The clearing work sometimes has to be stopped. Only in Scotland is it seriously wet. There are reports of rot in potatoes. Blackleg is also a growing problem, as is damage by snails as a result of the wet weather.

The north of Poland also experiences heavy rainfall. A lot of rain is also expected in the coming days. Reportedly, not all the wheat has even been harvested due to the excessive wetness. The situation is normal in central and southern Poland.

Market not impressed
The potato futures market, and especially the physical market, is currently at such a low point that even flooding can do little to change that. The long-term forecast is favorable with higher temperatures and little to no precipitation. That gives no reason to panic on the market. Only in 2 weeks will it become clear how extensive the damage really is.

Opportunities during storage season
The areas where storage potatoes are grown have been particularly affected by the precipitation. This places the problem at the second half of the season. If consignments have to be delivered early, this can put additional pressure on the market. As a result, current prices will only continue to fall.

Demand from the industry is already not noticeable. Additional supply is therefore not desirable at all. If batches free of rotten tubers can be stored for a long time, there may be opportunities in the tail end of the season.

Strong regrowth
According to recent Numbers of the NEPG, the Dutch area has increased by 4,1% this year, to 75.800 hectares of ware potatoes. Most growth does not take place in the traditional growing regions, where water damage is now an issue. Whether the extra potato yield can compensate for the loss due to flooding should become clear in the next six months.

There are stories about significant growth from Belgium and Northern France. Potato crops there are still relatively green. Due to the dry weather, the nitrogen was released late. The crops still benefit from this. Normally, a final assessment of the final hectare yield is given in mid-September.

Potato trader Bruwier announced on Monday, September 18, that he will postpone the final trial harvesting by 2 weeks, because growth has not yet been achieved. The figures from other companies also show an average yield level that is 5 tons above the multi-year average.