The yield figures for the American main crop have been adjusted downwards considerably in September. This means that the harvest is a few percent lower than in 2016. On the other hand, French fries exports are continuing well, as a result of the low dollar exchange rate.
The latest expectations, looking at the yield figures from early September, estimate a main harvest of 19,78 million tonnes (389,5 million cwt). This means the harvest has been reduced by 350.000 tons compared to the forecast in August. Compared to the 2016 harvest, the total volume is 4% lower.
Lower hectare yield
Final figures from the USDA (the United States Department of Agriculture) put the 2016 main harvest at 20,65 million tons, with an average yield of 56,73 tons per hectare. For this year, an average yield of 54,46 tons per hectare is taken into account.
Reductions in potato yields have been made, especially in the states of Idaho, Wisconsin and the Columbia Basin. Looking at the average yield over a period of 20 years, this year it is 1.750 kilos per hectare below that line.
Idaho surrenders
A correction of 640.000 tons is made for Idaho. The yield is therefore more than 9% below that of last year. Despite the reduction, the potato state continues to have the largest acreage in the US by far: 6,43 million versus 5,1 million tons in Washington. This state is in 2nd place. The area here has decreased by 3,4%. The area in Idaho is more than 125.000 hectares. This means that it has decreased by more than 6.000 hectares compared to the 2016 harvest year.
Growing conditions not ideal
The reason for the reductions is mainly the unfavorable growing conditions. Planting was done considerably later than last year and the extremely high temperatures this summer did not do the crops any good. Trial harvests from the end of August show a yield that is 7% below last year. Crops in the west of the state, which have already been cleared, are between 8% and 10% below average in terms of yield. On average, the potatoes in the East are still green, but just like in Europe, harvesting must start.
Growers want to start with storage potatoes, but the temperatures must first drop sufficiently. The quality varies and depends on the variety and how much is irrigated. For example, there are concerns about the underwater weight. It is too low due to the dry weather.
Factories are prepared
Chip factories have anticipated the lower yields and late start of the harvest. More potatoes from storage were processed in July and August. More free potatoes have also been purchased. If the yield actually turns out to be significantly lower, efforts will be made to conclude more contracts for early chip potatoes, which should compensate for a shortage at the end of the season. If the export of fries increases significantly, only then will free product be purchased at prices that are above the contract agreements. So far, trading has been done at contract price.