With the completion of the harvest and a more accurate picture of yields and hectares, the total harvest for the EU-5 ware potato countries (England, Belgium, France, Germany and the Netherlands) will only continue to be adjusted upwards.
The latest forecast from an analyst firm from England now assumes a harvest of 30,53 million tons. The big step up is mainly prompted by the harvest in England, which looks set to amount to 6,2 million tons. That is an increase of 15,8% compared to last year.
Back to 2004
You have to go back to the year 2004 to interpret these numbers. In 2004, the EU-5 harvested approximately 29,5 million tons of potatoes. Germany is included in the estimate for the 2017 harvest for 11,3 million tons, but German insiders expect an upward adjustment in the coming weeks.
Last year the EU-5 achieved a yield of 25,6 million tons of potatoes, which means that Northwestern Europe has 5 million tons more potatoes than last year. To compare with other 'abundant' years, even 2011 and 2014 are about 1 million tons lower than this year.
It will be quite a job to get rid of all the potatoes. Despite the enormous growth in processing capacity in the EU-5, even with a positive forecast (of 1 million tons of additional processing), the amount of extra potatoes cannot yet be processed. This means that alternative sales are of great importance.
Growth of area
The unbridled growth of the areas, especially in France and Belgium (doubled in 15 years), ensures the large volume of potatoes. The coverage of the various processing industries in the EU-5 also ensures that there is no demand for free potatoes.
This will be the case well into 2018 and it will then become clear in the spring how early the new season will start. This in combination with the amount of potatoes that have been spilled or sold via an alternative channel. That will determine whether there is still air in the market and whether a possible price increase is still in the pipeline.