Despite the fact that the Canadian potato harvest was only marginally larger compared to last year, there are significantly more potatoes in storage. The most up-to-date stock measurement therefore causes surprises. What is the cause of this?
According to recent figures from the official Canadian statistical system Infohort, 1 million cwt of potatoes were in storage on December 80,1, which equates to more than 4 million tonnes. It represents an increase of 259.000 tonnes, compared to the same date last year, good for an increase of 6,7%. This is somewhat of a surprise for the Canadian potato sector. This year's harvest was only 20.000 tons larger than in 2016.
Incomplete data
The unusual increase may be due to errors in the data that individual provinces provide to the government, analysts believe. For example, processing capacity in the province of New Brunswick has increased, but processing in tonnes decreased by 47,6% at the start of this season. It is possible that incomplete data is responsible for the big difference. The province of British Columbia did not publish figures on the seed potato stock, which means that the data also differs.
The province of Prince Edward Island had the most potatoes in stock on December 1, but recorded a decrease of 7,3% compared to 2016. The provinces of Ontario and New Brunswick both increased by 31%. Alberta also recorded a significant plus of 17,5%. British Columbia recorded the largest percentage decline at 37%, partly due to the lack of data.
Significantly lower potato sales
The processing and sale of early potatoes amounts to 1,2 million tons, a decrease of almost 239.000 tons compared to the same period last year: or 16,4%. In New Brunswick and Alberta, sales have fallen by an impressive 92%. However, major changes in the sales of early potatoes are not surprising in Canada, say insiders. This year's mega decline does raise major questions about the reliability of the data. Until December 1, potato sales fell in almost all provinces.
Uncertainty reigns
What do the surprising figures mean for the Canadian potato market? The lack of confidence in the data creates uncertainty within the sector. Based on past experience and figures, analysts estimate that the chip potato stock is approximately 11% larger than on December 1 last year. For table potatoes this is 8% and for seed potatoes a reduction of more than 15% is set.
Despite an increase in the stock of chip potatoes, the sector experiences this differently. Chip potatoes are difficult to obtain in the eastern provinces. Processors have tried to record as much as possible, so that free goods are hardly available. Potatoes from other sectors are purchased in order to have sufficient product for French fries production.