Will a late spring save the potato market?

The first weather record in De Bilt was already broken on Wednesday, January 24, 2018. Never before had it been so warm on that date (14 degrees). There is a chance that the record for the third week of January will also be broken. With this spring-like temperature, people are undoubtedly thinking about next spring. Does a warm January also mean an early spring?

The warm weather will be driven away by a new cold front on Thursday, January 25. Heavy precipitation falls prior to this. Making a prediction for the course of the spring months is difficult, if not impossible. Various weather phenomena are active worldwide, including the Arctic cold in North America. The weather phenomenon La Niña is also a much-discussed topic. What does this mean for Europe?

Effect of La Niña
A La Niña mainly affects the weather in North and South America and Australia. This weather phenomenon is less noticeable in Europe and the Netherlands. A La Niña is the reverse of an El Niño. The sea surface temperature in part of the Pacific Ocean is lower than average. This ensures colder or warmer weather, depending on the country.

On average over 150 years, La Niña years are fractionally drier in the Netherlands, according to the KNMI. The effect is small. The chance of a wet spring is about 20%, compared to an average of 33%. The official forecast model for a La Niña or El Niño treasure the chance up to and including April is 96%. In March this is 85% and in April it is still 63%. There is no chance of an El Niño.

Wet springs
The winter of 2007/2008 had the strongest La Niña ever. Then a lot of precipitation fell in March: 129 millimeters. In the changeable spring of 2016 this was 69 millimeters and in March 2013 it was 39 millimeters. In 1998 and 1999, precipitation also exceeded 100 millimeters. In 2016, the month of April was very wet, with 72 millimeters, and in 2013 the month of May was very wet with 100 millimeters. A spring can start smoothly and end late, like 2016.

There is no relationship between a La Niña and a lot of precipitation. This correlation can be found in precipitation versus temperature. Wet years usually mean a lower average temperature. For example, the average in March 2008 was 9,4 degrees, compared to 13,3 degrees in 2017. It was also unusually cold in 2016.

The futures market and the weather
The graph below shows the price movements of the potato futures market during wet springs. It is clearly visible that the market revises its position and makes a decision in week 8. Will the seed potatoes go into the ground early or will it be a late year? This was very noticeable in 2013, among others, while 2008 was not very impressed by all the rain.

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Wet springs usually cause a revival in week 8 (start of March).For contrast, the early year 2014 is also included. Even then, the potato stores were packed and the futures market was at a low level. Planting started early, resulting in the April contract being settled at €3 per 100 kilos.

Quality
In addition to the weather, other factors also play a role, such as the quality of the product in the second half of the storage season. This currently remains an issue, although many bad batches have already been processed. Yet insiders report that new problem parties are still emerging. In particular, potatoes that have been harvested under (too) wet conditions cannot last the full desired storage period. Whether there will be an increase at the end of the season is as unpredictable as the weather.