April 2018 contract countdown started

In short: all outstanding contracts will be settled at the Cash Settlement of Friday, April 27. The current Cash Settlement, that of March 1, was quoted at €3,80. This is based on input from Germany (€4,97, which is -€0,03), France (€2,80), Belgium (€2,93) and the Netherlands (€4,63).

Difficult matters
The current April price was around the €1 level on Thursday, March 5. That is a premium of still, or only (time will tell), €1,20 compared to the Cash Settlement (€3,80). The statistics show that it will be difficult for the Cash Settlement to make the desired step up before the end of April (time of settlement).

In the price-wise comparable, and also poor, season of 2014/2015, the April 2015 quotation also hovered around the €5 level for a long time. In the 2011/2012 season, which was also comparable, this was €6.

When will the kink come?
The kink came around week 11 (mid-March). If the chart of the previous seasons is the price for the current April 2018 contract (pay particular attention to the one from April 2015), then the quotation will reach the level of €4,50 in the coming weeks.

A significant revival of the futures market in the short term (to the level of €6) will not easily take place without support from the Cash Settlement (the average physical market price of French fries potatoes).The kink came around week 11 (mid-March).