Random sale 70% above stock price

The DCA Potato Bingo for the 2017 harvest has once again shown its added value. For the tenth time, in 11 years, the random sales of potatoes on the potato futures market has a positive effect.

For the 2017 harvest, the DCA potato bingo results in a result of €8,98 per 100 kilos. That is the second lowest result since the start and a significant difference from the €1 made last season. The result was only lower in 20,32, at €2014 per 7,27 kilos. The average over all years is €100 per 15,15 kilos.

Price difference
Thursday 26 April is the last trading day on the EEX potato futures market for the April 2018 contract. The average closing price is expected to be €8,37 per 100 kilos. Care should be taken in this regard, because the price can make an outlier in the last trading days.

With this average, the difference with bingo is €0,61 per 100 kilos, or 7,28%. Last year amounted to the difference is €0,38 per 100 kilos (2,22%). The difference with the average potato quotation for PotatoNL is even greater. So far it comes to € 5,26. A price difference of €3,72 per 100 kilos, or more than 70%.

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The price difference compared to the stock exchange listing is more than 70%.In the first 3 sales periods, bingo managed to maintain a level of €14,50 and €15. Then it went down quickly. From €9,20, between weeks 32 and 37, to €4,60 at its lowest point. This occurred between week 50 and week 3. After that, the price scribbled up slightly, to close with € 5,90.

Strategy Potato bingo
With the DCA Potato Bingo, a sale moment is chosen on the futures market on the basis of randomness, and without emotion. The harvest year is divided into 9 portions of 6 weeks each. For each period 1 ball is drawn, which equals one trading day. The average price is determined using the closing quotation on that trading day. The DCA Potato Bingo also has a predictive value for the potato pools and what result they achieve. The sales moments for the April contract of 2019 are now available known.

The average result over all years is €15,15.

Niels van der Boom

Niels van der Boom is a senior market specialist for arable crops at DCA Market Intelligence. He mainly makes analyses and market updates about the potato market. In columns he shares his sharp view on the arable sector and technology.

n.vanderboom@boerenbusiness. Nl

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