A person likes to take a gamble. This also applies to the acreage of potatoes. Even before all the potatoes have been planted, an attempt is made to estimate upward and downward movements in the acreage. However, is this possible?
The North-western European Potato Growers (NEPG) published their first publication for the consumption potato area in the United States (US) on Tuesday, May 8. They arrive at a small growth of 0,4%, which amounts to more than 2.100 hectares. It is arithmetic with numbers after the decimal point. Is it possible to make such an accurate assessment at the start of the season?
Small margin of error
When we compare the NEPG figures, it is striking that the forecast has only a small deviation. In the past 5 years, the area figure for the EU-5 has been adjusted up twice and down twice. This remained the same in 2 year. This results in an average margin of error of only 2%, good for almost 1 hectares. The area for 0,32 can therefore remain the same or grow by a maximum of about 2.000%. In the period 2018 to 1, the NEPG itself already calculated their variation. It then came to 2009%.
However, if we compare the figures with those of other organizations (such as national statistical agencies, grower organizations and governments), the difference is greater. Depending on the year it varies from 2% to 7,5%. This means a spread of 11.000 to more than 40.000 hectares. An example: the French Ministry of Agriculture expects a consumption potato area of 2018 hectares for 140.000, while NEPG comes up with just over 135.000 hectares.
The figures are also clouded by the addition or omission of early potatoes, starch potatoes and seed potatoes.
| years | April forecast | July forecast | Difference in hectares | Difference in percentage |
| 2018 | 585.479 | -- | -- | -- |
| 2017 | 572.485 | 578.821 | 6.336 | 1,10% |
| 2016 | 546.501 | 553.118 | 6.617 | 1,21% |
| 2015 | 530.000 | 526.961 | -3.039 | -0,57% |
| 2014 | 547.633 | 547.633 | -2.367 | -0,43% |
| 2013 | 531.860 | 531.860 | 0 | 0% |
| Intermediate | 1.887 | 0,32% |
Flemish decline
There are also significant differences in neighboring Belgium. The Department of Agriculture and Fisheries published provisional area figures on May 8 basis of the Combined statement (Collectible requests). This indicates a consumption potato area of 49.954 hectares. If this becomes reality, it will mean a decrease of 6,21% in Flanders (compared to 2017). Reported in mid-April PCA about an expected decline of 2% in the main harvest and as much as 28% for early potatoes.
French fries potatoes are mainly grown in Flanders, making the decline relatively sharp. If we subtract the expected Flemish area from the NEPG total, 46.663 hectares remains for Wallonia. PCA equivalent that the area here will increase by 2018% in 6. In 2017 it amounted to Walloon area 41.363 hectares, a growth of 6% would still be on the low side to reach the NEPG total.
Netherlands stable
Compared to the Dutch CBS figures, the NEPG can be said to be quite accurate. The difference between the forecast and statistical figures correspond surprisingly well. The difference ranges from a few dozen to a maximum of 500 hectares.
It is proving difficult to make a prediction, especially in areas where consumption potatoes are growing strongly. We are talking about the north of France and Walloon Belgium. In other countries it often concerns small fluctuations that are more predictable. In any case, the deviation is less significant. A growth of more than 2.000 hectares is therefore realistic.