More hectares and fewer kilos in EU-5

Where possible, the figures mentioned are based on official statistics from government services in the various countries. Where this was not possible, the NEPG figures were used or our own interpretation was made; this is the case for Germany.

(Text continues below the chart)The areas hardly change. Source: NEPG, statistical services & own sources.

The Netherlands remains stable
Statistics Netherlands estimates a consumption potato area of ​​2017 hectares in the Netherlands for 76.300. The NEPG is slightly below this, with 75.800 hectares. They expect a decline of 2,5% this year. Insiders also expect a reduction, but that is a reduction of around 1,5% compared to the CBS figures. This means a decrease of 1.144 hectares, to more than 75.000 hectares. This still means it is 2.000 hectares above the 5-year average.

However, the prognosis for the Netherlands is very difficult to make, partly as a result of the flooding. In the southwest and northeast of the Netherlands, the plots are scarred by heavy precipitation. It is difficult to estimate to what extent this affects the yield. In the Northern Netherlands, this often concerns starch potatoes. Insiders are extremely cautious when talking about the dry weather. The situation of 2017 is still fresh in our minds; If July and August are dry, then the yield will only be affected.

Wallonia compensates Flanders
From figures from the Belgian government, published by Fiwap, it appears that the potato area in Belgium amounts to almost 95.000 hectares. The NEPG previously estimated the area at 96.617 hectares. The estimates have been adjusted downwards. The total area in Belgium therefore decreases by 0,6% (600 hectares) compared to the area of ​​2017. At that time the area was 95.228 hectares.  

The fact that the area in Belgium is decreasing is because the area in Flanders is decreasing by 5,5%. The area in Flanders therefore amounts to 51.000 hectares. In Wallonia, on the other hand, the area has increased to almost 44.000 hectares. The growing conditions in the country are mainly good; heavy showers did not cause any problems. In West Flanders, the crops are slightly less abundant compared to the other areas.

France biggest grower
In France, arable farmers are expanding the potato area by another 6.000 hectares this season. This brings the area to 145.000 hectares. While the Belgian area decreases by 600 hectares, the French area increases by a factor of 10. Despite the poor market, French farmers are still opting for more potatoes. This is due to a lack of cost-effective alternatives. Also is noticeable that French dairy farmers will grow potatoes because they cannot expand their livestock.

German cultivation is growing
The German states come first area of 249.000 hectares (including seed potatoes and starch). The area would therefore decrease by 2%. The NEPG previously estimated a growth of 1,5%, which would bring the area to more than 177.000 hectares. The share of seed potatoes and starch last year accounted for 30% of the total area (74.100 hectares). The official German figures would therefore amount to 174.300 hectares for pure consumption. However, the cultivation of starch potatoes has also increased. An area of ​​176.000 hectares of ware potatoes is therefore more realistic.

Decline in Poland
The Polish Economic Institute for Agriculture (IERGZ) has made a first official area forecast for this year: 300.000 hectares. This means that the total potato area reaches the same level as in 2015; it also means a minus of 29.000 hectares. After 2 years of growth, production has come to a halt. Insiders agree with this initial forecast, but they do note that a shift has taken place. For example, fewer early and table potatoes and more chip potatoes are grown. This area could reportedly remain the same or increase. The area under starch potatoes has also reportedly increased.

The Polish potato crops are now suffering from drought. Over there wrote we talked about earlier. The government service IUNG-PIB previously reported that there was no official drought status. That is now the case. There is serious drought in 50% of the areas. The precipitation deficit increased by 90 millimeters and in extreme cases this increases to 200 millimeters. The average for many agricultural areas is 150 millimeters.

Late and warm British season
The United Kingdom is the only country that has not yet published a forecast for 2018. Due to the late planting dates, AHDB Potato has postponed the deadline to August 1. The NEPG maintains the 5-year average for now. This means the strongest decline within the EU-5: -3,6% or -102.480 hectares. That reduction will probably be slightly smaller.

Of the EU-5 countries, potatoes were planted last in the United Kingdom. By mid-May, 50% still had to be planted. However, the month was warm and with frequent showers. As a result, the crops have developed explosively. The supply of early potatoes started only a little later. It is now starting to become dry in many areas. However, almost all professional growers in the important growing areas can irrigate.

Conclusion
When we compare the first area estimates with the average hectare yields over the past 5 years, it becomes clear that an increasing area does not yield more kilos (compared to 2017). This is partly because the area fluctuations are mainly small, with the exception of France and Poland. In addition, 2017 was a top year in terms of production.

* The figures are based on NEPG data; 2018 based on the mentioned area figures.