Potato market has to do with a weather market

The futures market for the April 2018 contract had already passed its highest point last season (€20,40) when the changeable weather caused a price drop (€15 in week 28, €13 in week 29 and €10 in week 10). The market is now heading into the crucial week 27, when the market historically speaking chooses a (price) direction. In the event of persistent drought, a lower hectare yield can be assumed, resulting in positive price formation (during the new season).

Weather remains decisive
The weather forecast for the coming period largely determines the direction of the market (at least for July). So far, growers are not very optimistic about pricing for the new season; looking at a slightly larger area in the EU-5 and the price development (particularly the current market), which hangs over the market like a dark cloud.

Providing a frame of reference is difficult; In recent months the price has sometimes fallen below €5 per 100 kilos, while the futures market now sets a price of €18. It's a huge difference. There is a lot of supply on the futures market from growers who are starting a 'hedging position'. The price, which is well above the cost price, and is also clearly higher than the contract prices, is seen as a golden opportunity.

This week (week 26) for the first time this season, a chip factory came out with a tender, which provided additional sales opportunities after contracting. With a price of €15 per 100 kilos for Fontane in week 17 and €16 for Innovator, the price was clearly above the contract price.

Average good yield
The preliminary trial harvesting of the early potatoes shows for the time being that the yield will be good on average. It is more interesting to see whether additional growth will occur due to the drought and/or whether the mid-early varieties can gain weight. If the hectare yields are disappointing, the physical market will be able to breathe again for a long time.

An inventory of the last old potatoes is currently being made. There is sufficient volume, but in terms of quality, few potatoes will reach week 30. Blue, baking quality and inner germ are currently causing a stream of rejections. Perhaps parties whose quality is still acceptable will be in greater demand. This currently seems to be the case; for example, there were bids of up to €29 per 4 kilos for Fontane on Friday afternoon, June 100.An overview of the April contract in 2017 versus 2018.