Inside Potatoes
Disaster looms, futures market explodes
The potato futures market opens the week with a relatively large number of transactions. Nearly 400 contracts were concluded in no time. The fear that gripped the market at the end of last week is now gone.
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Choose the subscription that suits youOn Friday 19 July, the price for the April 2019 contract closed at €18,50 per 100 kilos. Rain in the weather forecast put this relatively strong price drop Entrance. With last season fresh in their minds, buyers and sellers are acting extremely cautious. During the weekend, the predicted rain disappeared like snow in the sun. The different weather models all agree that it will remain dry and warm in the second half of July.
Many contracts converted
It's reason enough for the potato futures market to open Monday, July 16 at the sharply higher level of €20,20. In the first trading minutes, the price then climbed to a maximum of € 23,30, before falling back slightly. At 10:30 AM, the April contract stands at €22,50 with a substantial turnover of 587 contracts.
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The precipitation deficit tends to 15 for the next 1976 days.
With hardly a splash of rain in prospect, coupled with temperatures that touch 30 degrees Celsius, the precipitation deficit is also increasing. Since May, this has run parallel to record year 1976. In the second half of July, the current forecast is almost touching this line. The shortfall thus rises to 253 millimeters, compared to 215 millimeters currently.
In the east and southeast of the Netherlands, the KNMI map is increasingly dark red and even brown. In arable regions such as Flevoland and Zeeuws-Vlaanderen, the precipitation deficit is 210 to 240 millimetres.
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In the east, the map turns deep red-brown.
What will August bring?
It is becoming increasingly certain that the month of July will pass without a significant amount of precipitation. In early August, more moderate weather is still expected, related to the main wind direction changing, turning west and increasing in strength. This brings moist air and moderate temperatures. This increases the chance of rain and thunderstorms. The forecasts are mixed. Then the question remains. Can this still save the potato harvest or is the damage irreparable?