Futures market has a rest day

The movement of the market has been huge: from €18,50 on the Friday in week 28 to just over €31 on the last day of July. It is logical that the turnover is declining. The seller (often the hedging grower) faces a significant loss and (despite the higher price level) is reluctant to sell.

Reselling is not an option for a while
The potato crops, which suffer from the dry and hot weather, are very concerned. However, continuing to resell is not an option for a while. The parties with a buy position have received a lot of money in the account, and are waiting to see what the market will do next. In addition, a next step towards €35 (or perhaps even higher) still seems too early.

In that sense, it remains the merchant again. Will it stay dry and warm, then there will be even more scarcity. Even if the weather changes in mid-August, the harvest in Europe is expected to be lower than the raw material requirement of the processing industries.

What is the price development?
The key question is: what will the market price development be in the coming months? In that case, the various scenarios must be taken into account (yes/no rain significant in the short term, or maybe even no rain at all). If we look at the current market price of new potatoes suitable for chips (approximately €25 per 100 kilos), a futures market of just above the level of €30 is not unusual.

However, are higher forward market prices (for example €35), as was the case in the 2003 and 2016 harvest years, feasible? Time will soon show us.The April contract on the potato futures market is rising again.