The main harvest for storage potatoes (fall potatoes) in the United States (US) is average this year. This statement is based on an initial estimate. The growing conditions are not always easy and the acreage is increasing slightly.
Analysts expect for this season a main crop of 20,32 million tonnes (400 million cwt). That is an increase of 9,500 tons compared to last year. The total area is estimated at 366.000 hectares, which is a small increase of 700 hectares.
Yield below average
Analysts estimate a yield of 55,6 tons per hectare. That is 1,3 tonnes below the 20-year average. The lower average yield is due to a late spring in some growing areas, rainfall and a warm summer. To keep factories running, plots have been harvested earlier than planned. The hectare yield can still be positive in the months of August and September.
In Idaho, the largest potato state from the US, a harvest is expected to be 1,6% larger (+108.000 tons), which is partly because the area has increased by 2.000 hectares. The total harvest is estimated at 6,7 million tons. Depending on the region, the crops are of varying quality: from mediocre to very good. The number of tubers also varies. High temperatures (during July) are a concern. The harvest of table potatoes started in August.
Washington is also a big potato state. There is currently a heat wave here, but this is not causing any damage to the crops. According to the USDA (the US Department of Agriculture), the area is the same as in 2017. The harvest is estimated at 5,11 million tons, an increase of 1,7% (compared to last year). This is partly due to a higher hectare yield. The area fries potatoes has increased, which is mainly at the expense of table potatoes.
Fill holes
It is accepted as a certainty in the market that fewer potatoes (and end products) will come from Europe in the 2018/2019 season. The hope is for processors in the US to still meet the global demand for fries. All chip manufacturers have expanded their contracts this year. Yet that is not enough. High temperatures, which can cost yields, are also taken into account. Quality is also a concern.
The largest reductions are expected in Wisconsin, Minnesota and Maine. These states have a relatively small share in the potato market. In Idaho, processors are expected not to be able to handle the larger harvest; excess kilos are sold on the table market. Additional processing capacity should partly solve this and that should also feed the export market. However, questions are raised to what extent this is possible.
potato chips
The potato chip industry is also struggling a shortage to make. This is at odds with the 2017/2018 season, when there was a significant surplus. As a result, the factories have issued fewer contracts. Currently, ex-field contracts are being brought forward to meet the need and growers are being approached to deliver ex-field (instead of storing). The yields per hectare are low, which means that more hectares are being cleared.