What does the rain do to the potato and the market?

The futures market for the April contract (2019) is hot short period of time increased from €20 to €30, with a temporary top of €32,50. The listing is €8 on Thursday, August 29. It is basically a very high market level, but in retrospect it is a price that certainly still has room for improvement. The potato futures market shows a volatile (or nervous) picture because:

1. Speculators trade up and down, with lots of money in their pockets. The purchase has often already been made below the €20 level.
2. This is a unique situation that is difficult or impossible to compare with other years.
3. The influence and possibilities of the processing industry (such as pushing fries from other parts of the world) makes the stakeholder nervous. This tempers optimism.
4. The selling positions are mainly held by hedgers who do not or hardly reverse the position even in declining markets.
5. A futures market level of €30 upwards is something that must be taken 'seriously' (there is some fear of heights).

Now that the weather forecasts finally show some significant rain, the question is what this will do to the crops. This mainly involves matters such as: through are thought.

(Text continues below the image)The current rainfall deficit is currently 306 millimeters.

Possible scenarios
The weather forecasts can have different effects on the crops. Below are a number of scenarios:

1. The irrigated potato plots can benefit from the rain and the different weather types. This will allow them to catch up to some extent.
2. The potatoes will start to develop foliage again when it rains and can therefore start to grow.
3. It may also be that the rain comes too late, causing the plots to die within 2 weeks.

Plots in Northwest Europe will be eligible for all 3 scenarios, which makes it difficult to estimate what the rain will do to the final potato harvest.

Which scenario?
In scenario 1, only a limited part of the hectare will benefit, because the crop status of the irrigated plots is also in the 'return phase'. The greatest concern is found in scenario 2. With the crop that today produces less than 30 tons (gross yield) and subsequently shows induction of crop growth, ultimately nothing will come of it. Scenario 3, on the other hand, mainly occurs on plots in sandy areas, but also on non-irrigated and late-planted plots.

However, it does not matter which scenario will apply to which cultivation area in Europe, because the fact is that yields will be significantly below the 5-year average. This is because the prolonged dry period has caused permanent damage.The precipitation deficit exceeds 300 millimeters in almost all of the Netherlands.