Ownership of the business (rain) end of the entertainment

The futures market for the April contract (2019) came under pressure in week 32 due to the expected rain. The lowest level of this week was reached on Monday August 6 (€27,60), but after that the realization apparently came the rain cannot possibly solve the problems. As a result, the price recovered to close at €28 on Monday.

The rain in particular thursday 9 august did provide lighting in a number of plots. However, the futures market felt strong and rose again towards the magical limit of €30. With the weekend approaching, the quotation rose with relatively little turnover (188 contracts) to a closing position of €31. This means that the futures market closes at its highest point on Friday for the fourth week in a row. This indicates that the situation does not seem to be over yet.

Bottom of €30?
The market currently appears to have found a bottom at the €30 level. Given the daily potato market, the futures market price is very realistic. The physical market is currently between €25 and €30 per 100 kilos, depending on size and variety.

The coming weeks will be in the context of further growth development of potatoes in Northwestern Europe. The trial harvesting of the various processors and trading houses will provide an indication of the expected yield. Many parties are currently taking into account a loss of yield of at least 20% compared to the 5-year average.

Not always bad
By the way, leave it the trial harvests don't always see a bad picture. This has to do with the phase the crop is in now (first half of August). Due to the dry, and especially warm, weather, the crops are 3 to 4 weeks further in development than average. This means that the current trial harvests must be compared with those of weeks 34 to 35.

The coming weeks will also be exciting, regarding 'the ghost' was gone. To what extent will overgrowth manifest itself, and what consequences will this have for the different potato plots? That is the question.