Potato market debacle continues to show

As we move towards September and new trial harvest data are announced, it is becoming clearer by the day that the harvest in the EU-5 is on the eve of an unprecedented low yield. The fact that the market shows an upward trend during the harvest period confirms expectations of a significantly lower European potato harvest.

Weuthen gives an indication
In Germany it was op the Kartoffeltag from potato trading house Weuthen gave the first indication of the German potato harvest. While the final German potato harvest was set at 11,7 million tons last season, a yield of approximately 8,5 million tons is expected this year. The harvest forecast is slightly adjusted by the AMI.

The AMI assumes a potato harvest of approximately 9,5 million tons, which is still almost 20% less than last season. However, in proportion it is a lot higher than stated on the Kartoffeltag. Time will tell us, because more clarity will be provided at the 'Kartoffelherbstbörse' in Hannover on September 26.

Forecasts from other areas
Forecasts regarding the potato harvest will also be provided very soon from the Netherlands, France and Belgium. In any case, insiders are taking into account a significantly lower potato harvest, which will be approximately 20% to 30% below the 5-year average. After there in the second half of August stir fell, there was still hope for some recovery of the crops. However, the renewed growth reportedly appears to be disappointing.

There are many reports of this through and the damage caused by drought also appears to be extensive in the irrigated plots. So large that, even under ideal growing conditions, the growth per day cannot be achieved. If growth continues, part of the harvest will also be unusable, resulting in even more shortages.

(Text continues below the chart)The trend of the April contract on the potato futures market.

Development in Britain
An important factor for the development of the market price is the situation in Great Britain. The harvest in that country also appears to be disappointing, despite the rainfall in recent weeks. Under normal conditions the harvest should amount to 6,1 million tons, but the latest reports regarding the 2018 harvest suggest 5,1 million tons. Only in the 2012 harvest year, when some of the potatoes could not be harvested, was the final figure set lower (4,7 million tons).

The potatoes for storage are already being processed or prepared for other purposes. This raises the question: how will this be resolved later in the season? People in Great Britain are willing and accustomed to paying top prices for top products from the Agria variety and related varieties. According to insiders, this will certainly be reflected in the quotations in the Netherlands, for example (particularly in category 2).

Solid bottom
The conclusion at the moment is that there is a solid bottom the market which will fluctuate little during the off-shore period; between €25 and €29 per 100 kilos. How things will proceed from the moment the potatoes are behind the shelves is still a chapter to be written. In any case, it is clear that it will be very exciting.