It is clear that this is a very special season. Never before in the era of the euro has the futures market for the April contract remained so firmly above the €30 level, which is a very strong signal in the off-country period. But, there is really something wrong this harvest year.
During a normal growing season, approximately 5 million tons of potatoes would be harvested in the EU-28, but the warm and dry weather type mean that the harvest this season will be 20% lower according to the latest forecast. The exceptional thing about this is that it concerns all major European chip potato countries.
In the 2012 harvest year there was a crop failure in Great Britain and the market ended that season between €25 and €30. This harvest year is almost over any country to create a story in the EU-5. With the 2012 harvest year as the reference year, a potato market (after the export period) with a level of above €30 is therefore not an illogical idea.
Market under pressure?
Normally the market is under pressure during the export period, but that does not seem to be the case this trading season. And that can be seen as special. The current market (direct delivery), depending on variety, size and quality, is between €26 and €27 per 100 kilos for Fontane. For the Innovator and Zorba varieties, this is a price between €28 and €30 per 100 kilos.
Many growers tend to move on from today's prices Affairs to do, which makes sense (looking at the current price level). If growers start storing the potatoes, they will soon have to pay more than €30. There have already been cases, especially for potatoes of the Innovator variety, that exceeded the level of €30 per 100 kilos. In addition, business would also have been done in week 36 for €35 per 100 kilos (delivery January/February).
More buyers
The above creates another element that creates a strong mood, namely 'other' or more buyers. This is in comparison to the years in which the average market price was low. It is difficult to indicate for whom or what the generally less active parties buy potatoes. However, it certainly means that the grower's 'radar' needs to be fine-tuned even more.