Why is the physical potato market still standing?

In the Netherlands, the variation in prices is greater, with size and variety mainly determining the final price. With prices between €25 and €28,50 per 100 kilos, this is slightly above those of Belgian processors.

Stable price
In general, a stable ex-land price is a special feature. There is often extra pressure at the start of the (main) harvest season the market. This is because the growers want the plots empty, the yields do not fit in the barns and/or the quality is not good enough for storage.

An increasing physical potato market in the field period is certainly an exception. There are few harvest years where this has been the case.

PCA's quotation is above Belgapom's quotation.

The truth will emerge in the coming weeks and this will set the definitive trend for the rest of the season. The market seems to have entered a kind of breathing space for now.

Continue with the old harvest
There are still processors who are getting rid of early potatoes. There is no longer any fear that there would be a gap after the early and mid-early potatoes, partly because the old harvest has been continued for longer. This has saved 4 weeks of time and this is now reflected in the market (development).

Potato processors can be largely supplied with contract potatoes. There are even growers who complain that they would like to deliver their contracts (for example Fontane) of the main harvest, but that these are not called. Sometimes there is also no room for those potatoes.

The April contract on the potato futures market.

Decline not an option?
However, a decrease in the physical price does not seem to be an issue at the moment. The processors use the market (on land) to make up/buy part of their lost position (the contract potatoes that have not grown). With that they give a strong bottom to the market.

In addition, preference is even given to free potatoes and potatoes from the alternative circuit (table and starch potatoes), instead of the (relatively cheap) contract potatoes. This means that growers often have to wait a while.

The potato futures market now appears to be trapped between €30 and €32 per 100 kilos. The trade and processors indicate that they are willing to buy potatoes for that money (delivery in February/April), but not those from the futures market. After all, you can't make fries from paper.

Development of subsequent growth
In addition, there are a number of factors in the market that influence the price. It is not clear how the growth developing in Northwestern Europe. In Wallonia it is reported that most potatoes are dead and there is not much growth left, while in Flanders growing plays a major role. The plots with Bintje, which are now being delivered, often have 20% to 40% glass. This also entails logistical challenges.

In the Netherlands the reports are mixed. In various parts of the Netherlands, growers are still struggling with drought and therefore do not expect any further growth. In Flevoland people seem to benefit most from the rain and late summer, so the yields are described as reasonable.

On the other hand, Germany expects a record low harvest. The main harvest for storage has now started. France is in better shape (compared to Belgium), but the yield will certainly be 10% to 15% lower than last year. This is in contrast to what the NEPG reports (4%).

In the near future, the market will be dominated by quality and yield, thus revealing its final secret during the harvest. This will allow the market to choose a further direction.