Is a weaker market a prelude for the rest of the season?

There are a number of reasons why there is now more supply. Firstly, growers have waited to make offers due to uncertainty about the yield. They first wanted to know how many potatoes would ultimately emerge from the ground and whether there would be room for the sale of free potatoes (in addition to the contract obligations).

Now that it is clear to the same potato growers how much potatoes If they actually have to sell, they can also offer more. 

High price
The second reason is the high price paid for the free (good) potatoes. Many growers incurred high cultivation costs last season to keep the potatoes going and therefore need liquidity within their company. 

2016 is also still fresh in our minds. Relatively high prices were also paid at that time, but these high expectations could not be met in the winter months. The potato growers who then said no to €25 from the field, eventually delivered their potatoes dry from the shed for €22 in April. The grower is therefore afraid of the strategy that processors use.

As soon as the harvest is behind the shelves, it is clear how many potatoes there are and the calculations can begin. Spreading the topping on the sandwich (the season), by being smart with the contract position, the sale of fries and (sometimes) shutting down the chip lines, can cause a flattening market. Growers know this game and are taking their profits now.

Compelling offer
There is also the fear of a compelling offer from custody in the coming months. Not all potatoes arrived equally well and storing glass potatoes is also quite an art. This could create additional pressure on the market.

No upside potential?
The potato futures market shows approximately the same picture. There is no expected value in the price. This week Ramos (April delivery) was traded for €30. While Innovator has also been traded (away before Christmas) for €30. The futures market therefore also shows little upside potential for the winter season.

Belgapom's listing also does not help to maintain buyers' confidence in the futures market. Bintje's low quotation makes speculators in particular cautious. The market therefore needs new impulses that do not seem to be on the horizon for a while.