News Harvest forecast CBS
'Publication of harvest estimate stirs emotions'
"Bad harvest in onions and potatoes." "French fries smaller and more expensive." "The chips are getting smaller." These are headlines and catchphrases from various news items. Now that CBS has published the harvest estimate for potatoes and onions, emotions are unleashed. Reason enough for CDA members Jaco Geurts and Joba van den Berg to stick to their position: the figures influence the market.
National and regional media will pay attention to the preliminary harvest estimates of the CBS for seed onions and ware potatoes. These confirm what the sector realized much earlier: the yields of these (and other crops) are well below standard and in some cases historically low.
Media headlines on emotion
News broadcasts are reporting a shortage of chips, smaller fries, fewer chips and crop failure for onions. Emotional messages or the harsh reality Last year was on a different level discussed† At the time, CBS estimated the total onion yield at 1,5 million tons and that of potatoes at almost 4 million tons. The discussion heated up especially with onions; arable farmers in the south-west, in particular, could not find themselves in the mentioned revenues.
What followed was a discussion on a political level. CDA MPs Geurts and Van den Berg asked Minister Carola Schouten (Agriculture, Nature and Food Quality) about the usefulness of the harvest estimates. In their view, such publications distort the market. Schouten and Minister Eric Wiebes (Economic Affairs and Climate) stated that in their view this is not the case. In addition, the figures must obligated are published to meet Brussels requirements.
- Jaco Geurts
Position remains
De Numbers of the 2018 harvest have a positive effect on price formation (for growers) rather than a negative one. Still, Geurts sticks to his position: "I have heard the news reports, but have not yet looked at the content of the figures", he says. "My reasoning stands, despite the signal being sent from the market that real figures have been outlined this year. It remains a snapshot."
According to the MP, they are not just letting go of their position. "You can already notice that the media are responding to shortages, for example by talking about a French fries shortage. Such publications always evoke emotion and they can negatively affect the market. We may soon come up with a response."
potato analysis
According to the preliminary harvest estimate of Statistics Netherlands, 3,1 million tons of ware potatoes will be harvested this year, a decrease of 23% compared to last year. These figures correspond to those in the Potato Analysis of Boerenbusiness, which hit subscribers' mats in week 43. Here you will also find the yield expectations for the EU-5.
The subscribers of Boerenbusiness Potato Market and Akkerbouw Pro receive the magazine in their letterbox free of charge. Curious about the analysis? look at the preview and will be today subscribes to receive the entire magazine.
Niels van der Boom
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