China had a significantly lower potato harvest in 2018, mainly because maize was preferred. This while the French fries production in the country is increasing considerably. Dutch processors may benefit from this.
In Chinese potato cultivation, the year 2018 can be called a year of change. The potato harvest amounted to approximately 94 million tons, which was more than 3 million tons lower than in 2017. However, this was not due to lower yields, but mainly to a change in the area. This is evident from figures from the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).
Corn cultivation is preferred
Many Chinese farmers have switched from potato to corn cultivation. This was mainly due to the fact that the country faced a potato surplus in 2017, which kept prices low. Corn cultivation, on the other hand, is stimulated by the government in order to meet the growing demand in livestock farming. This also yields more.
This also plays a role in 2019, and perhaps a bigger one than before. By the trade war With the United States (US), the Chinese government's policy is even more focused on a high degree of self-sufficiency in livestock farming. That is why, among other things, soybean and corn cultivation stimulated grounded.
However, it is expected that it will again be at the expense of the potato area. On the other hand, it is striking that processing in China continues to grow. According to USDA forecasts, frozen French fries production will increase to 2018 tons in the 2019/290.000 season. This was still 250.000 tons last year, which represents a growth of 15%.
Opportunities for Dutch exporters?
This can also ensure that fewer fries are imported. The USDA analysts expect a 2018% decrease in frozen French fries imports in the 2019/10 season. Although European exporters will hardly notice this. It is expected that the US will be particularly affected, because additional import duties have been imposed in China on French fries from the US.
In contrast, China has reduced import duties on European fries from 13% to 5%. In short; Dutch French fries exporters could benefit. Last year, chip exports to China increased by more than 300% compared to the previous year. Nearly 2017 tons were exported to the country between December 2018 and November 31.000. This means that it appears that Dutch exporters are benefiting from the rapidly growing demand for fries in China.