Potato export door open due to processors' price limits

When we look at the DCA PAT Index, then we see that a price of €30 per 100 kilos for French fries potatoes is still seen as a ceiling by the potato processors. The Index has been trading around this level since mid-January, after a price increase from mid-December.

Price ceiling
The PotatoNL quotation uses a wider bandwidth: €30 to €33 per 100 kilos. The price is also increasing more in Belgium. PCA/Fiwap quoted €5 to €30 for Fontane and Challenger on Tuesday, February 32,50, with €30 being the most commonly used price. It notes that the desire to buy is increasing. Bintje is now priced from €27,50 to €31, which is remarkable given the specifications (underwater weight of 335 grams and up to 15% floats).

According to various insiders, Belgian factories are increasingly active in the Netherlands to purchase free potatoes. Dutch processors are trying to make do with their contracted tons, but Belgium needs free potatoes and is therefore shopping with its northern and southern neighbors.

French import
More potatoes are being exported from France. The French RNM quotes €31 per 100 kilos for the other varieties. Bintje pays €30. Although France has had a better harvest than other EU-5 countries, supplies there are not finite either. That is why potato processors are forced to move to other destinations.

In addition to the Belgian and German processors, there is another privateer on the coast. There is some demand from Eastern Europe, especially for the high-quality and coarse batches. For example, for the Agria variety, for which prices rise to €36. In Poland, prices are now at a level of 1.000 zloty (€23,20). According to insiders, local potato processors no longer want to pay there.

Belgapom
Growers with free potatoes hope for a breakthrough in the short term. To this end, Belgapom's listing is being examined. It is currently trading at €30, but this is expected to be higher in the short term. When Belgian industry takes a new step, the Dutch industry must choose: stand still and open the export door, or rise with it.

In the meantime, the weather in the early growing areas is being closely monitored. Winter in Europe is mainly dry, with little rain and snow. Significantly warmer weather is even predicted until mid-February, fueling hopes for a (very) early spring. Changeable weather is expected in Bordeaux, with temperatures up to 16 degrees Celsius. In the German Rhineland it is more like 10 to 12 degrees Celsius and rainy.

Early harvest?
It is summer in southern Spain (20 degrees Celsius). The early potatoes are in the ground there and growth is positive. Last year, the total potato area in the country decreased by 10% and this year a significant increase is expected, especially in the very early segment. Processors may be betting that sufficient new harvest will be available in the second half of spring. More light will be shed on the final strategy in the next 2 weeks.