Inside Potatoes
These are the weakest weeks of the season
What will the futures market trade on this potato season? With 7 more times to settle down, the answer to that question becomes more pressing. From a statistical point of view, an answer can already be given, because the 'comparable' harvest years are easy to read.
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Choose the subscription that suits youThe physical market ripples along and feels calm. Processors appear to have their position in good order and are not actively moving on the market. The aggressive strategy in the field period and the long extension of the old season (until August) is paying off today. An important part of the gap has therefore been closed and due to good positional play, any forced demand in the next 2 months seems to be excluded.
The statistics
The sting will be in his tail. If we compare this season with other 'expensive' years, it is striking that weeks 8 to 11 are historically always weak weeks.
- In 2012, the season high was reached at €31,90. The last cash settlement came to €27, which is 8,5% of the high.
- In 2016, the season high was reached at €28,30. The last cash settlement amounted to €22,10, which is 8% of the high.
- In 2018, the season high was reached at €33,10. The final cash settlement is still unknown, but with a difference of 8% (compared to the highest point) it would amount to €30,45.
What is the conclusion?
We are currently in a carnival dip (weeks 8 to 11). The germination of the various potato varieties plays a role in this; in addition to the fact that growers offer to have their affairs arranged before the agricultural work starts.
The growers also seem slightly less optimistic about market development, especially due to the long sideways movement that the potato market is currently making. The good coverage that industries often have during this period also contributes to the calm mood on the potato market.
The settlement
Based on these statistics (based on 2012, 2016 and 2018), we can conclude that there is a significant chance that there will be a settlement of the April contract (2019) on the potato futures market of above €30 per 100 kilos.
This is based on the fact that the futures market settlement in the years 2012 and 2016 in week 17 was approximately 8,25% lower than the season high. In the 2018/2019 season the highest point (so far) is €33,10. If you assume that the settlement is 8,25%, you end up with €30,45.
