DCA provides first forecast potato area harvest 2020

The growing demand for fries and related products means that European processing capacity has been expanded considerably. This is evident from an earlier estimate by DCA the processing for 2019 (in the Netherlands and Belgium together) will increase to 9,5 million tons.

In recent seasons, especially since 2016, there has been an increase in the potato area in Europe. Traditionally, the cultivation areas of the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, France and England are the most important for the area of ​​the 2019 harvest year and the price formation on the market for French fries potatoes; although Poland should not be forgotten. What is the expectation for the coming harvest year?

Can Germany expand again?
Germany, especially the state of Lower Saxony, is the largest producer of potatoes within the EU-5. However, in recent years the Germans have been able to benefit less and less from the worldwide growing sales of end products; especially when looking at the growth that the Belgian (and to a lesser extent the Dutch) factories have made. 

DCA's estimate is that the Duitse potato processing industry will catch up. In addition, it is expected that the area of ​​chip potatoes will expand, at the expense of the table potato market. This is because the market share there is declining.

France continues to grow
In the backyard of major Belgian processors (Northern France), the potato area has grown enormously fast. According to DCA, potato growers are starting or scaling up professionally potato cultivation (especially contract cultivation), where there is still sufficient land available to grow further in the coming years.

Stability in England
In England, the potato area fell from 180.000 hectares at the end of the last century to 140.000 hectares in 2001, after which there was some room for expansion; in 2013 the area in England amounted to 160.000 hectares. This growth did not last long, because in 2018 the potato area amounted to 143.000 hectares. This is a stabilization compared to the previous year.

The increase in demand from the potato processing industry ensures that the potato area remains at the same level. According to DCA, the question remains how demand will develop the brexit from March 29, 2019.

Availability of seed potatoes
Much has already been said and written about seed potato availability. The lower yield in the most important European seed potato growing areas led to much speculation. The key question was: is there sufficient availability of seed potatoes of the required varieties for the chip potato grower in Europe? As is the case in almost all years, the availability situation is not too bad.

In short: growers are adequately served with seed potatoes by the main buyers. Due to the possible shortage, or at least the reports about it, foreign potato growers in particular have been creative to establish sufficient acreage with the desired varieties. The calm behavior in the Bintje seed potato market is a clear signal. After all, if there were a significant deficit from Fontane, then the price development of Bintje have been turbulent.

Few alternative crops
Another point regarding area development in Europe is that there are in fact few alternative crops for arable farmers. The beet price, especially in Germany, is below cost price and the wheat market does not provide much relief. For example, the September 2019 contract on the Matif in Paris (mid-March) is only €175 per tonne.

The contracts for vegetable cultivation are also not higher than in previous years and the demand for livestock feed is also lower (due to the shrinking livestock population in the Netherlands). As a result, land is offered for non-forage crops.

Ready to see how Snowflake works?
Putting the above information together, we can draw the following conclusions:

• Alternative crops, besides potatoes, are not an easy option.
• So far, seed potato availability does not seem to be an obstacle.
• The new cultivation areas (for example in Northern France) continue to grow.
• A higher contract price further stimulates cultivation.
• The growth of potato processing continues to stimulate potato cultivation.
• The decline in the cultivation of the Première variety is being made up for by other chip varieties.

With all available information, DCA expects that the potato area in the EU-5 will grow by 2019% to 3% in the 5 crop year, compared to the 2018 crop year. This would bring the total area to approximately 647.000 hectares.