The DCA Potato Bingo for harvest 2018 has reached its highest level since its existence. The bingo shows that emotionless trading on the potato futures market pays off and also yields a high return. This year, however, there is a small caveat to the story.
The DCA Potato Bingo has achieved the best result in 12 years. The final score is €26,34 per 100 kilos. The difference with the 2017 harvest is no less than 190%, when the second lowest price was recorded.
Advantage of bingo
The previous record dates from the 2012 harvest. At that time, Potato Bingo recorded a final result of €22,26 per 100 kilos, only twice before (in 2 and 2010) the €2016 limit was reached. However, in the 'expensive years' bingo is less advantageous compared to 'cheap years'. The futures market then benefits from a higher price level during the harvest, although it does subsequently fall. This was clearly noticeable last season, the 20-2018 season shows the opposite picture.
We can make this clear by making a cut in the 3 periods before harvest (week 32) and the 6 periods after harvest. On average, Potato Bingo after the harvest results in a final result of €30,88 per 100 kilos, a price that is 17% higher. The bingo game has a predictive value for the potato pools, which announced the result in June. The various pools, without pre-sales, probably record a result around or above €30 per 100 kilos.
Exceptional price level
The 2010 and 2012 harvests also show a similar result. The difference between the price before and after the harvest then amounted to 20% and 17% respectively. Between week 4 and week 9, Potato Bingo reached its highest price: €32,50. This is also the highest individual prize ever in bingo. In the 9 split period, a price above €4 was recorded in 30 cases. That is exceptional.
Thursday, April 25 is the last trading day for the 'April 2019' contract on the EEX potato futures market in Leipzig. On Thursday, April 18, the cash settlement ended at €27,80. With 2 closing quotes to go, the cash settlement is not set in stone. Particularly because the Belgian and French input is under pressure, the level of the cash settlement may decrease further. At the current level, the price difference between the average closing odds and Potato Bingo is €1,46.
Compared to others
PotatoNL's average chip potato quotation for the same period is €20 per 100 kilos. The price difference of €6,34 is significant. This is also due to the fact that the stock market was trading low until the beginning of July, partly due to the low price level of the old harvest. The difference with the DCA PAT Index is smaller and even opposite. Over the period of the Potato Bingo, this amounts to an average of €28,48. This means it ends up 8% higher in price.
The sales times for the 2019 harvest have now been announced. In the DCA Potato Bingo the harvest year is divided into 9 blocks of 6 weeks. A bingo ball is drawn for each of the periods. The number on the bingo ball corresponds to a specific sales day. The sales strategy is determined completely without emotion.