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Inside Potatoes

Bizarre situation on the potato market

29 March 2019 - 12 comments

The end of the potato futures market contract 'April 2019' is in sight with 4 weeks to go. In any case, the season can already be described as a historic year.

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De potato futures market is fighting hard to stay afloat, but buyers are hard to find. We also see this picture on the physical market, because there is no demand for free potatoes. The 4 processors in the Netherlands unanimously indicate that they will not be buyers in the next 4 weeks; they are full and can't use any extra potatoes. There is interest in buying potatoes for the period May to June, although they do not want to pay a premium for this. That means that €30 is apparently the price for this year.

No question
It is striking that there is no demand for the potatoes. In a season like this, when the lowest yield has been achieved in 10 years and the processing capacity is the highest ever, this is all the more remarkable. The PAT list still shows transactions of around €30. Judging by that transaction list, the market appears to be stable to steady.

Delivery Breed Price per 100 kilos Transaction Closing Date
Direct Fountains €29,50 March 29 2019
Mei Victoria €30,50 March 29 2019
Direct Sour €29,50 March 28 2019
Direct Fountains €29,00 March 28 2019
Mei Sour €30,50 March 28 2019
Direct Sour €30,00 March 28 2019
Direct Innovator €30,00 March 28 2019
Direct Sour €30,00 March 28 2019
Direct Innovator €30,00 March 28 2019
Mei Innovator €30,00 March 27 2019
April marquis €30,00 March 27 2019
Mei Royal €30,00 March 26 2019
Direct Fountains €30,00 March 25 2019
Direct Fountains €30,00 March 25 2019
Direct Lady Anne €30,50 March 25 2019
Direct Fountains €29,50 March 25 2019

However, the physical market for free potatoes feels quiet to very weak. There is no demand and only a small supply, especially from parties that are susceptible to germs. Belgium shows a similar picture. This resulted in Belgapom being unable to establish a listing for Bintje due to a lack of transactions. The odds for Fontane and Challenger remained at €30, with the sentiment stated as 'Bland'.

Miscalculation?
Does this mean that the potato processors have misjudged the market? And are there enough potatoes? This seems almost impossible, given last season's yields. In any case, the 'hoarding' during the off-farm period has resulted in a less hectic and upward potato market than expected. 

Eventually the devil will be in the tail again. What will it do again, and what will the connection be with the early potatoes? There are already many early potatoes this week planned and there will also be plenty of planting in the coming weeks.

Area Planted area
Palatinate About 95%
Rhineland More than 35%
Hanover More than 50%
Limburg More than 25%

The cultivation of early potatoes in Bordeaux is going well and they expect to be able to load plenty of potatoes in week 26. It remains a bizarre situation that the potato market, with a growing season like last year's, is so quiet.

Curious about what the weather will do in the coming period? Click here for an extensive European potato weather report.

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