The European growers' association NEPG expects the acreage for ware potatoes in Northwestern Europe to increase by 1% to 2% this year. This is a conservative estimate, because planting of the main crop has yet to begin.
According to figures from the North-Western European Potato Growers (NEPG), the area in 2018 amounted to 595.587 hectares. With a growth of a maximum of 2%, the expected area for the 2019 growing season amounts to 601.540 to approximately 607.500 hectares. The increase is therefore comparable, or slightly higher, than last growing season.
What will the harvest be?
The NEPG reports that the average hectare yield for the EU-5, including the extremely low year 2018, is expected to be 48,1 tonnes. A growth of 2% theoretically yields 29,22 million tons of potatoes. This makes the figure slightly below 2017, when 29,62 million tonnes were harvested.
However, the average hectare yield in 2017 was 50,2 tons. If we calculate with that figure, including the 2% increase in area, the EU-5 harvest amounts to a monstrous volume of 30,5 million tons. That is also the largest harvest in 10 years. The bottom (average yield of 2018) is then theoretically 24,8 million tons.
More growth than shrinkage
The NEPG expects that the area will increase in 4 of the 5 countries of the EU-5. It is not reported, but Britain is probably the decliner overall. Belgium shrank slightly in 2018, but is now growing again, according to the organization.
The increase in area is mainly fueled by the potato processing industry, which needs more product. If more seed potatoes were available, this would most likely have led to more acreage, for example writes FAKE. The size selection and quality of the starting material still remain an uncertain subject.
The association does, however, comment on this estimate, because planting of the main harvest has yet to begin. Only the prime potatoes and early varieties are in the ground. If you can plant in April and early May, then that will be right on time. Water will be the deciding factor, not the area. If there is insufficient rain this spring, some countries will experience water shortages for the third year in a row.
Caution in contracts
NEPG expects a stable price level for the last months of the 2018/2019 marketing season. The new season starts 'clean', partly because of the current small stock. With the experiences regarding contracts in mind, it is advisable to be careful when placing a signature.
Even though a ban on the sprout inhibitor 'CIPC' in Europe is not (yet) definitive, the organization calls on the potato sector to brace itself for this. More than 20 million tons of storage potatoes are affected by this.